Bundesliga · 2025/26
2026-05-16 · 14:30
11.8849.6%
X4.1422.5%
23.3527.8%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Heidenheim
WLDLLDLDWW
3W 3D 4L · 1.20 PPM
Mainz
DDLWLDWWDW
4W 4D 2L · 1.60 PPM

Goals

1.70
Scored
1.50
2.30
Conceded
1.50
80%
Over 2.5
70%
60%
BTTS
80%

By half

1.80
1H goals
1.50
2.20
2H goals
1.50
100%
Goal in 2H
100%

Corners

4.50N=10
For
3.40N=10
4.70
Against
5.90
9.20
Total
9.30
Signals

Key historical patterns

strongOver 2.5 goals

8/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.

moderateBoth teams scored

6/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.

very strongAt least one second-half goal

10/10 home-side sample · 10/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.70
Goals scored
1.50
2.30
Goals conceded
1.50
4.00
Total goals
3.00
100%10/10
Over 1.5
100%10/10
80%8/10
Over 2.5
70%7/10
60%6/10
Over 3.5
30%3/10
60%6/10
BTTS
80%8/10
Matchup

Heidenheim attack

1.70goals per match
Mainz conceded1.50
Matchup

Mainz attack

1.50goals per match
Heidenheim conceded2.30
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.70
1H goals scored
0.80
1.10
1H goals conceded
0.70
90%9/10
Over 0.5 1H
90%9/10
30%3/10
Leading at HT
40%4/10
1.00
2H goals scored
0.70
1.20
2H goals conceded
0.80
100%10/10
Over 0.5 2H
100%10/10
40%4/10
More goals in 2H
30%3/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
4.50N=10
Corners for
3.40N=10
4.70
Corners against
5.90
9.20
Match total
9.30
40%4/10
Over 8.5
60%6/10
30%3/10
Over 9.5
40%4/10
40%4/10
Team over 4.5
30%3/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

1.00N=10
For
1.90N=10
2.30
Match total
4.50
10%1/10
Over 3.5
70%7/10

Fouls

8.90N=10
Committed
8.50N=10
18.50
Match total
17.00

Shots

11.10N=10
Shots
10.80N=10
3.70
On target
4.80
15%
Conversion
14%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

low · Tier A
Comparable matches36
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home49.6%52.8%+3.2 pp
Draw22.5%22.2%-0.3 pp
Away27.8%25.0%-2.8 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.586.1%
Over 2.558.3%
Over 3.544.4%
BTTS55.6%

Historical average

2.001.25

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

1-113.9%
2-011.1%
3-18.3%
2-15.6%
4-05.6%

Comparable corner averages

5.535.11
Average total10.64

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=36.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.563.9%
Over 9.563.9%
Over 10.555.6%
Over 11.536.1%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches14
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT50.0%26.8%–73.2% CI
Draw FT28.6%11.7%–54.6% CI
Away FT21.4%7.6%–47.6% CI

Remaining goals

1.93

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal85.7%
2+ goals57.1%
3+ goals35.7%

Who scores in 2H

Home78.6%
Away50.0%