Bundesliga · 2025/26
2026-05-16 · 14:30
12.6535.1%
X3.8824.0%
22.2840.8%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Freiburg
DWWWWDLLWD
5W 3D 2L · 1.80 PPM
RB Leipzig
DLWDWWLWWL
5W 2D 3L · 1.70 PPM
Goals
1.60
Scored
1.50
1.30
Conceded
1.30
60%
Over 2.5
70%
80%
BTTS
70%
By half
1.10
1H goals
0.80
1.80
2H goals
2.00
80%
Goal in 2H
90%
Corners
4.00N=10
For
4.20N=10
4.20
Against
4.20
8.20
Total
8.40
Signals
Key historical patterns
moderateOver 2.5 goals
6/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
strongBoth teams scored
8/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
very strongAt least one second-half goal
8/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.60
Goals scored
1.50
1.30
Goals conceded
1.30
2.90
Total goals
2.80
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Freiburg attack
1.60goals per matchRB Leipzig conceded1.30Matchup
RB Leipzig attack
1.50goals per matchFreiburg conceded1.30Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.70
1H goals scored
0.40
0.40
1H goals conceded
0.40
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.90
2H goals scored
1.10
0.90
2H goals conceded
0.90
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
4.00N=10
Corners for
4.20N=10
4.20
Corners against
4.20
8.20
Match total
8.40
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.60N=10
For
1.90N=10
3.70
Match total
3.00
Over 3.5
Fouls
8.40N=10
Committed
10.80N=10
19.40
Match total
18.70
Shots
15.20N=10
Shots
13.30N=10
5.20
On target
4.80
11%
Conversion
11%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches12
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home35.1%25.0%-10.1 pp
Draw24.0%50.0%+26.0 pp
Away40.8%25.0%-15.8 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.5100.0%
Over 2.566.7%
Over 3.558.3%
BTTS91.7%
Historical average
1.75–1.75
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-125.0%
1-316.7%
2-216.7%
2-18.3%
3-38.3%
Comparable corner averages
5.25–4.75
Average total10.00
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=12.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.566.7%
Over 9.558.3%
Over 10.550.0%
Over 11.525.0%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches21
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT23.8%10.6%–45.1% CI
Draw FT42.9%24.5%–63.5% CI
Away FT33.3%17.2%–54.6% CI
Remaining goals
2.19
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal95.2%
2+ goals85.7%
3+ goals33.3%
Who scores in 2H
Home71.4%
Away85.7%