Bundesliga · 2025/26
2026-03-22 · 16:30
12.6635.0%
X3.0530.5%
22.7034.5%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

St Pauli
LLLLWDDWWD
3W 3D 4L · 1.20 PPM
Freiburg
LDLLWLDLLL
1W 2D 7L · 0.50 PPM

Goals

0.80
Scored
0.90
1.40
Conceded
2.30
60%
Over 2.5
50%
50%
BTTS
40%

By half

0.70
1H goals
0.80
1.50
2H goals
2.40
70%
Goal in 2H
90%

Corners

6.30N=10
For
4.70N=10
4.40
Against
5.30
10.70
Total
10.00
Signals

Key historical patterns

strongAt least one second-half goal

7/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.

moderateOver 8.5 corners

8/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
0.80
Goals scored
0.90
1.40
Goals conceded
2.30
2.20
Total goals
3.20
70%7/10
Over 1.5
80%8/10
60%6/10
Over 2.5
50%5/10
10%1/10
Over 3.5
30%3/10
50%5/10
BTTS
40%4/10
Matchup

St Pauli attack

0.80goals per match
Freiburg conceded2.30
Matchup

Freiburg attack

0.90goals per match
St Pauli conceded1.40
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.30
1H goals scored
0.40
0.40
1H goals conceded
0.40
50%5/10
Over 0.5 1H
40%4/10
20%2/10
Leading at HT
10%1/10
0.50
2H goals scored
0.50
1.00
2H goals conceded
1.90
70%7/10
Over 0.5 2H
90%9/10
50%5/10
More goals in 2H
70%7/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
6.30N=10
Corners for
4.70N=10
4.40
Corners against
5.30
10.70
Match total
10.00
80%8/10
Over 8.5
60%6/10
60%6/10
Over 9.5
50%5/10
70%7/10
Team over 4.5
70%7/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

1.60N=10
For
1.50N=10
3.90
Match total
3.60
50%5/10
Over 3.5
50%5/10

Fouls

9.90N=10
Committed
10.70N=10
20.70
Match total
22.60

Shots

10.50N=10
Shots
10.50N=10
3.80
On target
3.20
8%
Conversion
9%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

high · Tier A
Comparable matches1,118
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home35.0%34.0%-1.0 pp
Draw30.5%32.6%+2.1 pp
Away34.5%33.4%-1.1 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.567.4%
Over 2.542.6%
Over 3.522.3%
BTTS51.1%

Historical average

1.161.18

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

1-114.5%
0-011.1%
0-110.8%
1-010.6%
2-18.9%

Comparable corner averages

4.794.69
Average total9.49

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=1,117.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.559.4%
Over 9.548.6%
Over 10.536.6%
Over 11.526.6%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches399
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitystrong
Home FT29.3%25.1%–34.0% CI
Draw FT44.6%39.8%–49.5% CI
Away FT26.1%22.0%–30.6% CI

Remaining goals

1.19

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal68.9%
2+ goals33.6%
3+ goals11.8%

Who scores in 2H

Home46.1%
Away45.1%