Bundesliga · 2024/25
2025-03-30 · 16:30
11.6657.3%
X4.1023.2%
24.8619.6%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Dortmund
WWWDDLDLWL
4W 3D 3L · 1.50 PPM
Mainz
DWLWLLLWWW
5W 1D 4L · 1.60 PPM
Goals
2.10
Scored
1.70
1.20
Conceded
1.10
70%
Over 2.5
60%
70%
BTTS
50%
By half
1.40
1H goals
1.40
1.90
2H goals
1.40
90%
Goal in 2H
70%
Corners
6.00N=10
For
3.90N=10
2.90
Against
6.20
8.90
Total
10.10
Signals
Key historical patterns
moderateOver 2.5 goals
7/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.
strongAt least one second-half goal
9/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
2.10
Goals scored
1.70
1.20
Goals conceded
1.10
3.30
Total goals
2.80
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Dortmund attack
2.10goals per matchMainz conceded1.10Matchup
Mainz attack
1.70goals per matchDortmund conceded1.20Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.90
1H goals scored
0.90
0.50
1H goals conceded
0.50
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
1.20
2H goals scored
0.80
0.70
2H goals conceded
0.60
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
6.00N=10
Corners for
3.90N=10
2.90
Corners against
6.20
8.90
Match total
10.10
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.30N=10
For
2.10N=10
4.80
Match total
4.10
Over 3.5
Fouls
9.80N=10
Committed
11.80N=10
19.60
Match total
21.10
Shots
14.50N=10
Shots
11.40N=10
4.80
On target
4.00
14%
Conversion
15%
Market history
Similar historical matches
medium · Tier A
Comparable matches306
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home57.3%61.8%+4.5 pp
Draw23.2%20.6%-2.6 pp
Away19.6%17.6%-1.9 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.582.4%
Over 2.561.1%
Over 3.535.6%
BTTS55.6%
Historical average
2.03–1.05
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
2-011.4%
2-111.1%
1-09.8%
1-17.2%
1-26.9%
Comparable corner averages
6.08–4.03
Average total10.11
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=306.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.567.0%
Over 9.553.9%
Over 10.544.4%
Over 11.531.7%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches65
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT52.3%40.4%–64.0% CI
Draw FT30.8%20.9%–42.8% CI
Away FT16.9%9.7%–27.8% CI
Remaining goals
1.58
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal76.9%
2+ goals46.2%
3+ goals24.6%
Who scores in 2H
Home67.7%
Away30.8%