Bundesliga · 2023/24
2024-04-21 · 18:30
12.5837.2%
X3.5626.9%
22.6735.9%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Freiburg
DDWDWLDDLL
2W 5D 3L · 1.10 PPM
Mainz
DDDDDLLLLD
0W 6D 4L · 0.60 PPM
Goals
1.80
Scored
0.70
2.10
Conceded
1.80
70%
Over 2.5
40%
80%
BTTS
60%
By half
2.20
1H goals
1.20
1.70
2H goals
1.30
80%
Goal in 2H
60%
Corners
5.00N=10
For
3.90N=10
3.60
Against
5.10
8.60
Total
9.00
Signals
Key historical patterns
moderateBoth teams scored
8/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.
moderateAt least one second-half goal
8/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.80
Goals scored
0.70
2.10
Goals conceded
1.80
3.90
Total goals
2.50
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Freiburg attack
1.80goals per matchMainz conceded1.80Matchup
Mainz attack
0.70goals per matchFreiburg conceded2.10Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.80
1H goals scored
0.40
1.40
1H goals conceded
0.80
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
1.00
2H goals scored
0.30
0.70
2H goals conceded
1.00
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
5.00N=10
Corners for
3.90N=10
3.60
Corners against
5.10
8.60
Match total
9.00
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.70N=10
For
3.10N=10
3.60
Match total
5.20
Over 3.5
Fouls
10.90N=10
Committed
13.30N=10
20.50
Match total
24.60
Shots
14.50N=10
Shots
11.50N=10
5.40
On target
3.60
12%
Conversion
6%
Market history
Similar historical matches
medium · Tier A
Comparable matches390
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home37.2%36.7%-0.5 pp
Draw26.9%27.9%+1.0 pp
Away35.9%35.4%-0.5 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.581.0%
Over 2.555.1%
Over 3.530.8%
BTTS62.3%
Historical average
1.43–1.41
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-114.1%
1-210.0%
2-19.0%
1-08.2%
2-26.4%
Comparable corner averages
5.06–4.94
Average total10.01
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=390.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.565.1%
Over 9.550.8%
Over 10.539.0%
Over 11.529.7%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches105
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT35.2%26.8%–44.7% CI
Draw FT37.1%28.5%–46.7% CI
Away FT27.6%20.0%–36.8% CI
Remaining goals
1.58
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal80.0%
2+ goals50.5%
3+ goals21.0%
Who scores in 2H
Home60.0%
Away52.4%