Bundesliga · 2022/23
2023-04-22 · 14:30
15.3118.0%
X4.5721.0%
21.5761.0%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Mainz
WLDLWWWWDD
5W 3D 2L · 1.80 PPM
Bayern Munich
DWWWDWLWLW
6W 2D 2L · 2.00 PPM
Goals
2.30
Scored
2.00
1.20
Conceded
1.30
70%
Over 2.5
60%
60%
BTTS
70%
By half
1.50
1H goals
1.80
2.00
2H goals
1.50
90%
Goal in 2H
80%
Corners
4.60N=10
For
4.20N=10
4.00
Against
4.40
8.60
Total
8.60
Signals
Key historical patterns
moderateOver 2.5 goals
7/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.
moderateBoth teams scored
6/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
very strongAt least one second-half goal
9/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
2.30
Goals scored
2.00
1.20
Goals conceded
1.30
3.50
Total goals
3.30
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Mainz attack
2.30goals per matchBayern Munich conceded1.30Matchup
Bayern Munich attack
2.00goals per matchMainz conceded1.20Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
1.20
1H goals scored
1.40
0.30
1H goals conceded
0.40
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
1.10
2H goals scored
0.60
0.90
2H goals conceded
0.90
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
4.60N=10
Corners for
4.20N=10
4.00
Corners against
4.40
8.60
Match total
8.60
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.30N=10
For
2.30N=10
3.80
Match total
3.70
Over 3.5
Fouls
14.20N=10
Committed
9.90N=10
24.70
Match total
20.10
Shots
14.50N=10
Shots
14.40N=10
6.40
On target
5.30
16%
Conversion
14%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches43
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home18.0%14.0%-4.1 pp
Draw21.0%30.2%+9.3 pp
Away61.0%55.8%-5.2 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.574.4%
Over 2.548.8%
Over 3.520.9%
BTTS41.9%
Historical average
0.81–1.77
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
0-114.0%
1-111.6%
0-011.6%
0-311.6%
0-29.3%
Comparable corner averages
3.53–5.88
Average total9.42
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=43.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.558.1%
Over 9.553.5%
Over 10.537.2%
Over 11.525.6%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches17
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT17.6%6.2%–41.0% CI
Draw FT47.1%26.2%–69.0% CI
Away FT35.3%17.3%–58.7% CI
Remaining goals
1.41
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal70.6%
2+ goals52.9%
3+ goals17.6%
Who scores in 2H
Home41.2%
Away58.8%