Bundesliga · 2022/23
2023-03-11 · 14:30
12.8933.1%
X3.4527.8%
22.4539.1%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Hertha
DDDWLWLLWW
4W 3D 3L · 1.50 PPM
Mainz
WWLLWLLDLW
4W 1D 5L · 1.30 PPM

Goals

1.70
Scored
1.40
1.70
Conceded
1.90
60%
Over 2.5
60%
60%
BTTS
70%

By half

1.60
1H goals
1.60
1.80
2H goals
1.70
80%
Goal in 2H
80%

Corners

4.00N=10
For
5.00N=10
4.90
Against
4.30
8.90
Total
9.30
Signals

Key historical patterns

moderateOver 2.5 goals

6/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.

moderateBoth teams scored

6/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.

very strongAt least one second-half goal

8/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.70
Goals scored
1.40
1.70
Goals conceded
1.90
3.40
Total goals
3.30
100%10/10
Over 1.5
80%8/10
60%6/10
Over 2.5
60%6/10
50%5/10
Over 3.5
30%3/10
60%6/10
BTTS
70%7/10
Matchup

Hertha attack

1.70goals per match
Mainz conceded1.90
Matchup

Mainz attack

1.40goals per match
Hertha conceded1.70
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.60
1H goals scored
0.60
1.00
1H goals conceded
1.00
70%7/10
Over 0.5 1H
80%8/10
10%1/10
Leading at HT
20%2/10
1.10
2H goals scored
0.80
0.70
2H goals conceded
0.90
80%8/10
Over 0.5 2H
80%8/10
40%4/10
More goals in 2H
30%3/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
4.00N=10
Corners for
5.00N=10
4.90
Corners against
4.30
8.90
Match total
9.30
50%5/10
Over 8.5
60%6/10
40%4/10
Over 9.5
50%5/10
30%3/10
Team over 4.5
80%8/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

2.00N=10
For
2.50N=10
3.10
Match total
4.50
40%4/10
Over 3.5
70%7/10

Fouls

13.60N=10
Committed
14.70N=10
26.90
Match total
25.60

Shots

12.20N=10
Shots
12.10N=10
4.60
On target
4.30
14%
Conversion
12%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

low · Tier A
Comparable matches226
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home33.1%32.7%-0.4 pp
Draw27.8%28.3%+0.6 pp
Away39.1%38.9%-0.2 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.577.0%
Over 2.550.0%
Over 3.531.0%
BTTS56.6%

Historical average

1.301.46

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

1-114.6%
0-19.3%
1-08.8%
2-27.5%
0-27.1%

Comparable corner averages

4.655.37
Average total10.03

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=226.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.563.3%
Over 9.552.7%
Over 10.543.4%
Over 11.533.2%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches68
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT36.8%26.3%–48.6% CI
Draw FT32.4%22.4%–44.2% CI
Away FT30.9%21.2%–42.6% CI

Remaining goals

1.51

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal83.8%
2+ goals45.6%
3+ goals16.2%

Who scores in 2H

Home57.4%
Away57.4%