Bundesliga · 2020/21
2021-05-16 · 17:00
16.6114.5%
X5.0219.1%
21.4466.5%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Mainz
LLLWWLWDWD
4W 2D 4L · 1.40 PPM
Dortmund
LWLLLWLDWW
4W 1D 5L · 1.30 PPM
Goals
0.90
Scored
2.10
1.10
Conceded
1.90
20%
Over 2.5
90%
40%
BTTS
80%
By half
1.10
1H goals
1.50
0.90
2H goals
2.50
70%
Goal in 2H
100%
Corners
2.80N=10
For
3.60N=10
4.40
Against
4.90
7.20
Total
8.50
Signals
Key historical patterns
strongAt least one second-half goal
7/10 home-side sample · 10/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
0.90
Goals scored
2.10
1.10
Goals conceded
1.90
2.00
Total goals
4.00
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Mainz attack
0.90goals per matchDortmund conceded1.90Matchup
Dortmund attack
2.10goals per matchMainz conceded1.10Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.60
1H goals scored
0.80
0.50
1H goals conceded
0.70
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.30
2H goals scored
1.30
0.60
2H goals conceded
1.20
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
2.80N=10
Corners for
3.60N=10
4.40
Corners against
4.90
7.20
Match total
8.50
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.00N=10
For
1.60N=10
4.70
Match total
3.00
Over 3.5
Fouls
16.50N=10
Committed
10.90N=10
29.30
Match total
20.40
Shots
10.00N=10
Shots
13.00N=10
4.00
On target
5.00
9%
Conversion
16%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches19
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home14.5%10.5%-4.0 pp
Draw19.1%31.6%+12.5 pp
Away66.5%57.9%-8.6 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.589.5%
Over 2.552.6%
Over 3.536.8%
BTTS63.2%
Historical average
0.79–2.11
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-126.3%
1-315.8%
0-210.5%
2-35.3%
0-05.3%
Comparable corner averages
3.47–5.79
Average total9.26
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=19.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.557.9%
Over 9.547.4%
Over 10.536.8%
Over 11.531.6%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches13
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT23.1%8.2%–50.3% CI
Draw FT30.8%12.7%–57.6% CI
Away FT46.2%23.2%–70.9% CI
Remaining goals
1.62
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal84.6%
2+ goals46.2%
3+ goals15.4%
Who scores in 2H
Home46.2%
Away61.5%