Bundesliga · 2020/21
2021-04-18 · 14:30
11.3968.6%
X5.0518.9%
27.6512.5%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Dortmund
LLLWDWDWWL
4W 2D 4L · 1.40 PPM
Werder Bremen
LLWDLWLDWL
3W 2D 5L · 1.10 PPM
Goals
1.80
Scored
1.20
1.60
Conceded
1.60
70%
Over 2.5
30%
70%
BTTS
40%
By half
1.10
1H goals
1.20
2.30
2H goals
1.60
100%
Goal in 2H
90%
Corners
6.20N=10
For
2.90N=10
2.60
Against
5.00
8.80
Total
7.90
Signals
Key historical patterns
very strongAt least one second-half goal
10/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.80
Goals scored
1.20
1.60
Goals conceded
1.60
3.40
Total goals
2.80
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Dortmund attack
1.80goals per matchWerder Bremen conceded1.60Matchup
Werder Bremen attack
1.20goals per matchDortmund conceded1.60Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.50
1H goals scored
0.40
0.60
1H goals conceded
0.80
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
1.30
2H goals scored
0.80
1.00
2H goals conceded
0.80
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
6.20N=10
Corners for
2.90N=10
2.60
Corners against
5.00
8.80
Match total
7.90
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.30N=10
For
1.90N=10
3.80
Match total
3.70
Over 3.5
Fouls
11.60N=10
Committed
11.00N=10
24.30
Match total
25.60
Shots
14.60N=10
Shots
7.40N=10
5.50
On target
3.10
12%
Conversion
16%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches29
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home68.6%58.6%-10.0 pp
Draw18.9%31.0%+12.1 pp
Away12.5%10.3%-2.1 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.582.8%
Over 2.562.1%
Over 3.531.0%
BTTS62.1%
Historical average
2.10–1.03
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
2-117.2%
2-010.3%
3-010.3%
1-110.3%
0-06.9%
Comparable corner averages
6.83–3.59
Average total10.41
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=29.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.572.4%
Over 9.569.0%
Over 10.548.3%
Over 11.541.4%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches11
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT63.6%35.4%–84.8% CI
Draw FT27.3%9.7%–56.6% CI
Away FT9.1%1.6%–37.7% CI
Remaining goals
1.82
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal81.8%
2+ goals72.7%
3+ goals27.3%
Who scores in 2H
Home72.7%
Away27.3%