Bundesliga · 2019/20
2020-01-18 · 14:30
12.2143.0%
X3.4827.3%
23.2129.6%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Current-season sample is not complete yetMainz: 8/10 · Freiburg: 9/10 in the selected Home / Away context. Stats below use only 2019/20 by default.
Include previous seasonsQuick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Mainz
LWLWLWLL
3W 0D 5L · 1.13 PPM
Freiburg
WWWLDDLLD
3W 3D 3L · 1.33 PPM
Goals
1.25
Scored
1.67
1.88
Conceded
1.56
75%
Over 2.5
67%
63%
BTTS
67%
By half
1.25
1H goals
1.67
1.88
2H goals
1.56
88%
Goal in 2H
89%
Corners
5.50N=8
For
3.56N=9
4.75
Against
6.67
10.25
Total
10.22
Signals
Key historical patterns
moderateOver 2.5 goals
6/8 home-side sample · 6/9 away-side sample.
moderateBoth teams scored
5/8 home-side sample · 6/9 away-side sample.
very strongAt least one second-half goal
7/8 home-side sample · 8/9 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=8 N=9
1.25
Goals scored
1.67
1.88
Goals conceded
1.56
3.13
Total goals
3.22
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Mainz attack
1.25goals per matchFreiburg conceded1.56Matchup
Freiburg attack
1.67goals per matchMainz conceded1.88Timing
First & second half
N=8 N=9
0.38
1H goals scored
0.89
0.88
1H goals conceded
0.78
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.88
2H goals scored
0.78
1.00
2H goals conceded
0.78
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=8 N=9
5.50N=8
Corners for
3.56N=9
4.75
Corners against
6.67
10.25
Match total
10.22
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.38N=8
For
1.67N=9
3.50
Match total
3.56
Over 3.5
Fouls
12.63N=8
Committed
9.89N=9
24.13
Match total
22.89
Shots
16.25N=8
Shots
12.56N=9
4.38
On target
4.22
8%
Conversion
13%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches32
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home43.0%31.3%-11.8 pp
Draw27.3%31.3%+3.9 pp
Away29.6%37.5%+7.9 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.581.3%
Over 2.556.3%
Over 3.540.6%
BTTS50.0%
Historical average
1.44–1.47
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-112.5%
0-29.4%
0-09.4%
2-29.4%
0-36.3%
Comparable corner averages
6.03–4.09
Average total10.13
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=32.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.568.8%
Over 9.556.3%
Over 10.550.0%
Over 11.540.6%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches15
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT33.3%15.2%–58.3% CI
Draw FT46.7%24.8%–69.9% CI
Away FT20.0%7.0%–45.2% CI
Remaining goals
1.93
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal73.3%
2+ goals60.0%
3+ goals40.0%
Who scores in 2H
Home60.0%
Away46.7%