Primeira Liga · 2025/26
2026-05-16 · 18:00
11.6157.2%
X3.8623.8%
24.8419.0%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Sp Braga
WDWWWDLWDD
5W 4D 1L · 1.90 PPM
Estrela
LWLDLDLLLL
1W 2D 7L · 0.50 PPM

Goals

2.10
Scored
0.90
1.10
Conceded
2.00
70%
Over 2.5
60%
60%
BTTS
60%

By half

1.80
1H goals
1.20
1.40
2H goals
1.70
90%
Goal in 2H
90%

Corners

4.70N=10
For
3.50N=10
3.00
Against
6.40
7.70
Total
9.90
Signals

Key historical patterns

moderateOver 2.5 goals

7/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.

moderateBoth teams scored

6/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.

very strongAt least one second-half goal

9/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
2.10
Goals scored
0.90
1.10
Goals conceded
2.00
3.20
Total goals
2.90
80%8/10
Over 1.5
80%8/10
70%7/10
Over 2.5
60%6/10
50%5/10
Over 3.5
40%4/10
60%6/10
BTTS
60%6/10
Matchup

Sp Braga attack

2.10goals per match
Estrela conceded2.00
Matchup

Estrela attack

0.90goals per match
Sp Braga conceded1.10
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
1.30
1H goals scored
0.50
0.50
1H goals conceded
0.70
80%8/10
Over 0.5 1H
70%7/10
60%6/10
Leading at HT
20%2/10
0.80
2H goals scored
0.40
0.60
2H goals conceded
1.30
90%9/10
Over 0.5 2H
90%9/10
30%3/10
More goals in 2H
60%6/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
4.70N=10
Corners for
3.50N=10
3.00
Corners against
6.40
7.70
Match total
9.90
40%4/10
Over 8.5
60%6/10
30%3/10
Over 9.5
60%6/10
70%7/10
Team over 4.5
20%2/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

2.40N=10
For
2.90N=10
5.30
Match total
5.90
90%9/10
Over 3.5
80%8/10

Fouls

12.70N=10
Committed
15.00N=10
24.10
Match total
30.10

Shots

9.80N=10
Shots
9.10N=10
4.00
On target
2.90
21%
Conversion
10%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

high · Tier A
Comparable matches556
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home57.2%59.2%+2.0 pp
Draw23.8%22.7%-1.2 pp
Away19.0%18.2%-0.8 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.575.7%
Over 2.553.6%
Over 3.527.2%
BTTS53.6%

Historical average

1.790.97

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

2-114.0%
1-012.1%
1-19.9%
2-09.7%
3-06.5%

Comparable corner averages

6.133.91
Average total10.04

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=556.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.563.1%
Over 9.552.5%
Over 10.540.5%
Over 11.530.2%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches164
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitymoderate
Home FT48.8%41.2%–56.4% CI
Draw FT32.9%26.2%–40.4% CI
Away FT18.3%13.1%–24.9% CI

Remaining goals

1.44

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal79.9%
2+ goals40.9%
3+ goals16.5%

Who scores in 2H

Home62.8%
Away42.1%