Primeira Liga · 2025/26
2026-04-12 · 18:00
11.3767.2%
X4.5920.0%
27.1912.8%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Sp Braga
LWWWDWWWDL
6W 2D 2L · 2.00 PPM
Arouca
LLDLWWLLLW
3W 1D 6L · 1.00 PPM

Goals

2.30
Scored
1.30
1.00
Conceded
1.70
80%
Over 2.5
60%
50%
BTTS
50%

By half

1.90
1H goals
1.70
1.40
2H goals
1.30
80%
Goal in 2H
70%

Corners

4.60N=10
For
3.80N=10
2.70
Against
4.10
7.30
Total
7.90
Signals

Key historical patterns

moderateOver 2.5 goals

8/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.

strongAt least one second-half goal

8/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
2.30
Goals scored
1.30
1.00
Goals conceded
1.70
3.30
Total goals
3.00
80%8/10
Over 1.5
60%6/10
80%8/10
Over 2.5
60%6/10
50%5/10
Over 3.5
50%5/10
50%5/10
BTTS
50%5/10
Matchup

Sp Braga attack

2.30goals per match
Arouca conceded1.70
Matchup

Arouca attack

1.30goals per match
Sp Braga conceded1.00
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
1.40
1H goals scored
0.70
0.50
1H goals conceded
1.00
90%9/10
Over 0.5 1H
70%7/10
70%7/10
Leading at HT
20%2/10
0.90
2H goals scored
0.60
0.50
2H goals conceded
0.70
80%8/10
Over 0.5 2H
70%7/10
30%3/10
More goals in 2H
40%4/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
4.60N=10
Corners for
3.80N=10
2.70
Corners against
4.10
7.30
Match total
7.90
30%3/10
Over 8.5
40%4/10
20%2/10
Over 9.5
40%4/10
60%6/10
Team over 4.5
30%3/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

2.10N=10
For
2.30N=10
4.70
Match total
4.20
80%8/10
Over 3.5
50%5/10

Fouls

12.60N=10
Committed
12.50N=10
24.50
Match total
25.00

Shots

10.70N=10
Shots
11.30N=10
4.30
On target
3.30
21%
Conversion
12%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

medium · Tier A
Comparable matches325
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home67.2%72.3%+5.1 pp
Draw20.0%18.5%-1.6 pp
Away12.8%9.2%-3.6 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.580.3%
Over 2.557.8%
Over 3.534.8%
BTTS48.3%

Historical average

2.220.75

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

2-013.8%
2-112.6%
1-011.1%
1-17.4%
3-07.1%

Comparable corner averages

6.613.44
Average total10.05

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=325.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.568.0%
Over 9.553.2%
Over 10.542.5%
Over 11.530.8%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches86
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT58.1%47.6%–68.0% CI
Draw FT31.4%22.6%–41.8% CI
Away FT10.5%5.6%–18.7% CI

Remaining goals

1.64

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal80.2%
2+ goals51.2%
3+ goals19.8%

Who scores in 2H

Home72.1%
Away29.1%