Primeira Liga · 2025/26
2026-04-12 · 18:00
11.3767.2%
X4.5920.0%
27.1912.8%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Sp Braga
LWWWDWWWDL
6W 2D 2L · 2.00 PPM
Arouca
LLDLWWLLLW
3W 1D 6L · 1.00 PPM
Goals
2.30
Scored
1.30
1.00
Conceded
1.70
80%
Over 2.5
60%
50%
BTTS
50%
By half
1.90
1H goals
1.70
1.40
2H goals
1.30
80%
Goal in 2H
70%
Corners
4.60N=10
For
3.80N=10
2.70
Against
4.10
7.30
Total
7.90
Signals
Key historical patterns
moderateOver 2.5 goals
8/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.
strongAt least one second-half goal
8/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
2.30
Goals scored
1.30
1.00
Goals conceded
1.70
3.30
Total goals
3.00
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Sp Braga attack
2.30goals per matchArouca conceded1.70Matchup
Arouca attack
1.30goals per matchSp Braga conceded1.00Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
1.40
1H goals scored
0.70
0.50
1H goals conceded
1.00
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.90
2H goals scored
0.60
0.50
2H goals conceded
0.70
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
4.60N=10
Corners for
3.80N=10
2.70
Corners against
4.10
7.30
Match total
7.90
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.10N=10
For
2.30N=10
4.70
Match total
4.20
Over 3.5
Fouls
12.60N=10
Committed
12.50N=10
24.50
Match total
25.00
Shots
10.70N=10
Shots
11.30N=10
4.30
On target
3.30
21%
Conversion
12%
Market history
Similar historical matches
medium · Tier A
Comparable matches325
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home67.2%72.3%+5.1 pp
Draw20.0%18.5%-1.6 pp
Away12.8%9.2%-3.6 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.580.3%
Over 2.557.8%
Over 3.534.8%
BTTS48.3%
Historical average
2.22–0.75
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
2-013.8%
2-112.6%
1-011.1%
1-17.4%
3-07.1%
Comparable corner averages
6.61–3.44
Average total10.05
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=325.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.568.0%
Over 9.553.2%
Over 10.542.5%
Over 11.530.8%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches86
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT58.1%47.6%–68.0% CI
Draw FT31.4%22.6%–41.8% CI
Away FT10.5%5.6%–18.7% CI
Remaining goals
1.64
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal80.2%
2+ goals51.2%
3+ goals19.8%
Who scores in 2H
Home72.1%
Away29.1%