Primeira Liga · 2025/26
2026-04-04 · 18:00
15.9815.4%
X3.8523.9%
21.5260.6%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Moreirense
WLDLWWLLDL
3W 2D 5L · 1.10 PPM
Sp Braga
DLWWLDWWLW
5W 2D 3L · 1.70 PPM
Goals
0.90
Scored
1.90
1.60
Conceded
1.10
60%
Over 2.5
70%
50%
BTTS
60%
By half
0.80
1H goals
1.40
1.70
2H goals
1.60
100%
Goal in 2H
90%
Corners
3.70N=10
For
5.60N=10
5.80
Against
3.00
9.50
Total
8.60
Signals
Key historical patterns
moderateOver 2.5 goals
6/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
very strongAt least one second-half goal
10/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
0.90
Goals scored
1.90
1.60
Goals conceded
1.10
2.50
Total goals
3.00
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Moreirense attack
0.90goals per matchSp Braga conceded1.10Matchup
Sp Braga attack
1.90goals per matchMoreirense conceded1.60Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.30
1H goals scored
0.90
0.50
1H goals conceded
0.50
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.60
2H goals scored
1.00
1.10
2H goals conceded
0.60
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
3.70N=10
Corners for
5.60N=10
5.80
Corners against
3.00
9.50
Match total
8.60
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.60N=10
For
2.20N=10
4.50
Match total
4.80
Over 3.5
Fouls
13.80N=10
Committed
12.20N=10
29.20
Match total
24.70
Shots
7.40N=10
Shots
13.40N=10
2.30
On target
5.40
12%
Conversion
14%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches109
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home15.4%11.9%-3.5 pp
Draw23.9%20.2%-3.8 pp
Away60.6%67.9%+7.2 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.578.0%
Over 2.552.3%
Over 3.523.9%
BTTS48.6%
Historical average
0.82–1.90
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
0-116.5%
0-216.5%
1-214.7%
1-17.3%
2-16.4%
Comparable corner averages
3.42–5.50
Average total8.93
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=109.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.551.4%
Over 9.537.6%
Over 10.526.6%
Over 11.522.9%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches30
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT6.7%1.8%–21.3% CI
Draw FT30.0%16.7%–47.9% CI
Away FT63.3%45.5%–78.1% CI
Remaining goals
1.47
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal83.3%
2+ goals50.0%
3+ goals13.3%
Who scores in 2H
Home26.7%
Away80.0%