Primeira Liga · 2023/24
2024-04-27 · 18:00
11.5660.6%
X4.4021.5%
25.2917.9%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Benfica
DWWWWWWWWW
9W 1D 0L · 2.80 PPM
Sp Braga
WWWLWLWDWW
7W 1D 2L · 2.20 PPM
Goals
3.00
Scored
1.90
0.40
Conceded
1.30
70%
Over 2.5
60%
40%
BTTS
40%
By half
1.50
1H goals
1.00
1.90
2H goals
2.20
100%
Goal in 2H
80%
Corners
8.10N=10
For
5.00N=10
2.80
Against
3.60
10.90
Total
8.60
Signals
Key historical patterns
moderateOver 2.5 goals
7/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.
very strongAt least one second-half goal
10/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
moderateOver 8.5 corners
7/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
3.00
Goals scored
1.90
0.40
Goals conceded
1.30
3.40
Total goals
3.20
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Benfica attack
3.00goals per matchSp Braga conceded1.30Matchup
Sp Braga attack
1.90goals per matchBenfica conceded0.40Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
1.30
1H goals scored
0.60
0.20
1H goals conceded
0.40
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
1.70
2H goals scored
1.30
0.20
2H goals conceded
0.90
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
8.10N=10
Corners for
5.00N=10
2.80
Corners against
3.60
10.90
Match total
8.60
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.10N=10
For
2.30N=10
3.80
Match total
3.80
Over 3.5
Fouls
12.90N=10
Committed
10.80N=10
22.60
Match total
22.50
Shots
18.30N=10
Shots
11.80N=10
8.70
On target
5.10
16%
Conversion
16%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches116
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home60.6%58.6%-2.0 pp
Draw21.5%16.4%-5.1 pp
Away17.9%25.0%+7.1 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.585.3%
Over 2.569.0%
Over 3.545.7%
BTTS57.8%
Historical average
2.25–1.22
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
2-09.5%
3-07.8%
2-17.8%
0-17.8%
1-16.0%
Comparable corner averages
6.28–3.97
Average total10.25
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=116.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.572.4%
Over 9.555.2%
Over 10.544.0%
Over 11.530.2%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches28
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT50.0%32.6%–67.4% CI
Draw FT25.0%12.7%–43.4% CI
Away FT25.0%12.7%–43.4% CI
Remaining goals
1.54
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal85.7%
2+ goals50.0%
3+ goals17.9%
Who scores in 2H
Home64.3%
Away42.9%