Primeira Liga · 2022/23
2023-05-06 · 20:30
11.5660.9%
X4.3022.1%
25.5917.0%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Benfica
WWWDWWWWLW
8W 1D 1L · 2.50 PPM
Sp Braga
WWWWLWLWWW
8W 0D 2L · 2.40 PPM
Goals
2.60
Scored
1.90
0.70
Conceded
1.10
70%
Over 2.5
80%
50%
BTTS
50%
By half
1.80
1H goals
1.20
1.50
2H goals
1.80
80%
Goal in 2H
90%
Corners
7.70N=10
For
5.70N=10
2.70
Against
4.30
10.40
Total
10.00
Signals
Key historical patterns
strongOver 2.5 goals
7/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
very strongAt least one second-half goal
8/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.
strongOver 8.5 corners
7/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
2.60
Goals scored
1.90
0.70
Goals conceded
1.10
3.30
Total goals
3.00
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Benfica attack
2.60goals per matchSp Braga conceded1.10Matchup
Sp Braga attack
1.90goals per matchBenfica conceded0.70Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
1.50
1H goals scored
0.60
0.30
1H goals conceded
0.60
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
1.10
2H goals scored
1.30
0.40
2H goals conceded
0.50
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
7.70N=10
Corners for
5.70N=10
2.70
Corners against
4.30
10.40
Match total
10.00
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.30N=10
For
2.90N=10
4.20
Match total
5.80
Over 3.5
Fouls
13.70N=10
Committed
11.90N=10
27.10
Match total
23.70
Shots
16.70N=10
Shots
14.80N=10
6.80
On target
7.10
16%
Conversion
13%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches210
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home60.9%69.0%+8.1 pp
Draw22.1%16.7%-5.4 pp
Away17.0%14.3%-2.7 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.580.5%
Over 2.558.6%
Over 3.536.2%
BTTS50.0%
Historical average
2.20–0.83
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-013.3%
1-110.5%
2-09.5%
2-19.0%
3-08.1%
Comparable corner averages
6.18–3.71
Average total9.89
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=210.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.563.3%
Over 9.551.4%
Over 10.539.5%
Over 11.530.5%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches56
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT55.4%42.4%–67.6% CI
Draw FT32.1%21.4%–45.2% CI
Away FT12.5%6.2%–23.6% CI
Remaining goals
1.63
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal89.3%
2+ goals50.0%
3+ goals19.6%
Who scores in 2H
Home78.6%
Away42.9%