Segunda Division · 2025/26
2026-05-16 · 15:15
13.5625.6%
X3.5925.4%
21.8649.0%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Ceuta
WLWWWLWDDD
5W 3D 2L · 1.80 PPM
Malaga
WWLLWWDDLW
5W 2D 3L · 1.70 PPM
Goals
1.40
Scored
2.00
1.20
Conceded
1.40
70%
Over 2.5
70%
70%
BTTS
70%
By half
1.40
1H goals
1.20
1.20
2H goals
2.20
70%
Goal in 2H
90%
Corners
4.20N=10
For
4.70N=10
5.30
Against
5.70
9.50
Total
10.40
Signals
Key historical patterns
strongOver 2.5 goals
7/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
strongBoth teams scored
7/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
strongAt least one second-half goal
7/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.40
Goals scored
2.00
1.20
Goals conceded
1.40
2.60
Total goals
3.40
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Ceuta attack
1.40goals per matchMalaga conceded1.40Matchup
Malaga attack
2.00goals per matchCeuta conceded1.20Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.90
1H goals scored
0.80
0.50
1H goals conceded
0.40
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.50
2H goals scored
1.20
0.70
2H goals conceded
1.00
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
4.20N=10
Corners for
4.70N=10
5.30
Corners against
5.70
9.50
Match total
10.40
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.80N=10
For
2.70N=10
5.50
Match total
5.40
Over 3.5
Fouls
15.90N=10
Committed
10.70N=10
31.00
Match total
24.10
Shots
11.70N=10
Shots
14.50N=10
4.40
On target
4.90
12%
Conversion
14%
Market history
Similar historical matches
medium · Tier A
Comparable matches375
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home25.6%24.3%-1.3 pp
Draw25.4%21.6%-3.8 pp
Away49.0%54.1%+5.1 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.581.6%
Over 2.560.0%
Over 3.534.7%
BTTS59.2%
Historical average
1.19–1.86
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-213.1%
1-19.9%
0-28.0%
0-17.2%
1-06.1%
Comparable corner averages
4.32–5.49
Average total9.81
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=375.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.564.5%
Over 9.552.0%
Over 10.538.7%
Over 11.526.9%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches103
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT21.4%14.5%–30.2% CI
Draw FT35.9%27.3%–45.5% CI
Away FT42.7%33.6%–52.4% CI
Remaining goals
1.67
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal81.6%
2+ goals56.3%
3+ goals23.3%
Who scores in 2H
Home49.5%
Away65.0%