Segunda Division · 2025/26
2026-05-09 · 13:00
14.4420.6%
X3.9723.0%
21.6256.4%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Ceuta
DWLWWWLWDD
5W 3D 2L · 1.80 PPM
Castellon
LDDWDLLDDW
2W 5D 3L · 1.10 PPM
Goals
1.40
Scored
1.40
1.20
Conceded
1.60
70%
Over 2.5
50%
70%
BTTS
60%
By half
1.40
1H goals
1.60
1.20
2H goals
1.40
70%
Goal in 2H
70%
Corners
3.80N=10
For
6.70N=10
5.20
Against
4.00
9.00
Total
10.70
Signals
Key historical patterns
moderateBoth teams scored
7/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.
strongAt least one second-half goal
7/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.40
Goals scored
1.40
1.20
Goals conceded
1.60
2.60
Total goals
3.00
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Ceuta attack
1.40goals per matchCastellon conceded1.60Matchup
Castellon attack
1.40goals per matchCeuta conceded1.20Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.90
1H goals scored
1.00
0.50
1H goals conceded
0.60
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.50
2H goals scored
0.40
0.70
2H goals conceded
1.00
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
3.80N=10
Corners for
6.70N=10
5.20
Corners against
4.00
9.00
Match total
10.70
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.60N=10
For
2.80N=10
5.30
Match total
5.20
Over 3.5
Fouls
16.00N=10
Committed
13.50N=10
30.70
Match total
26.30
Shots
12.40N=10
Shots
15.00N=10
4.40
On target
5.10
11%
Conversion
9%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches145
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home20.6%22.1%+1.5 pp
Draw23.0%22.8%-0.3 pp
Away56.4%55.2%-1.2 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.583.4%
Over 2.561.4%
Over 3.533.8%
BTTS58.6%
Historical average
1.15–1.85
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-213.1%
1-19.7%
0-28.3%
2-27.6%
0-17.6%
Comparable corner averages
3.90–5.65
Average total9.54
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=145.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.558.6%
Over 9.549.7%
Over 10.537.9%
Over 11.529.0%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches29
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT24.1%12.2%–42.1% CI
Draw FT34.5%19.9%–52.7% CI
Away FT41.4%25.5%–59.3% CI
Remaining goals
1.62
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal79.3%
2+ goals58.6%
3+ goals24.1%
Who scores in 2H
Home48.3%
Away65.5%