Segunda Division · 2025/26
2026-05-09 · 13:00
14.4420.6%
X3.9723.0%
21.6256.4%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Ceuta
DWLWWWLWDD
5W 3D 2L · 1.80 PPM
Castellon
LDDWDLLDDW
2W 5D 3L · 1.10 PPM

Goals

1.40
Scored
1.40
1.20
Conceded
1.60
70%
Over 2.5
50%
70%
BTTS
60%

By half

1.40
1H goals
1.60
1.20
2H goals
1.40
70%
Goal in 2H
70%

Corners

3.80N=10
For
6.70N=10
5.20
Against
4.00
9.00
Total
10.70
Signals

Key historical patterns

moderateBoth teams scored

7/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.

strongAt least one second-half goal

7/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.40
Goals scored
1.40
1.20
Goals conceded
1.60
2.60
Total goals
3.00
80%8/10
Over 1.5
80%8/10
70%7/10
Over 2.5
50%5/10
20%2/10
Over 3.5
50%5/10
70%7/10
BTTS
60%6/10
Matchup

Ceuta attack

1.40goals per match
Castellon conceded1.60
Matchup

Castellon attack

1.40goals per match
Ceuta conceded1.20
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.90
1H goals scored
1.00
0.50
1H goals conceded
0.60
70%7/10
Over 0.5 1H
70%7/10
50%5/10
Leading at HT
20%2/10
0.50
2H goals scored
0.40
0.70
2H goals conceded
1.00
70%7/10
Over 0.5 2H
70%7/10
50%5/10
More goals in 2H
30%3/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
3.80N=10
Corners for
6.70N=10
5.20
Corners against
4.00
9.00
Match total
10.70
60%6/10
Over 8.5
50%5/10
50%5/10
Over 9.5
50%5/10
30%3/10
Team over 4.5
70%7/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

2.60N=10
For
2.80N=10
5.30
Match total
5.20
90%9/10
Over 3.5
70%7/10

Fouls

16.00N=10
Committed
13.50N=10
30.70
Match total
26.30

Shots

12.40N=10
Shots
15.00N=10
4.40
On target
5.10
11%
Conversion
9%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

low · Tier A
Comparable matches145
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home20.6%22.1%+1.5 pp
Draw23.0%22.8%-0.3 pp
Away56.4%55.2%-1.2 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.583.4%
Over 2.561.4%
Over 3.533.8%
BTTS58.6%

Historical average

1.151.85

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

1-213.1%
1-19.7%
0-28.3%
2-27.6%
0-17.6%

Comparable corner averages

3.905.65
Average total9.54

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=145.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.558.6%
Over 9.549.7%
Over 10.537.9%
Over 11.529.0%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches29
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT24.1%12.2%–42.1% CI
Draw FT34.5%19.9%–52.7% CI
Away FT41.4%25.5%–59.3% CI

Remaining goals

1.62

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal79.3%
2+ goals58.6%
3+ goals24.1%

Who scores in 2H

Home48.3%
Away65.5%