Segunda Division · 2025/26
2026-05-03 · 15:15
11.6356.1%
X3.7424.4%
24.6819.5%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Sp Gijon
WLWWDDWDWW
6W 3D 1L · 2.10 PPM
Ceuta
WLLLWLLDLD
2W 2D 6L · 0.80 PPM
Goals
1.80
Scored
1.20
0.80
Conceded
2.40
60%
Over 2.5
70%
50%
BTTS
60%
By half
1.00
1H goals
1.70
1.60
2H goals
1.90
80%
Goal in 2H
70%
Corners
5.20N=10
For
3.80N=10
4.40
Against
5.60
9.60
Total
9.40
Signals
Key historical patterns
moderateOver 2.5 goals
6/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
strongAt least one second-half goal
8/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
moderateOver 8.5 corners
6/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.80
Goals scored
1.20
0.80
Goals conceded
2.40
2.60
Total goals
3.60
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Sp Gijon attack
1.80goals per matchCeuta conceded2.40Matchup
Ceuta attack
1.20goals per matchSp Gijon conceded0.80Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.60
1H goals scored
0.70
0.40
1H goals conceded
1.00
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
1.20
2H goals scored
0.50
0.40
2H goals conceded
1.40
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
5.20N=10
Corners for
3.80N=10
4.40
Corners against
5.60
9.60
Match total
9.40
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.90N=10
For
2.60N=10
5.10
Match total
4.90
Over 3.5
Fouls
10.60N=10
Committed
12.20N=10
21.30
Match total
25.90
Shots
14.20N=10
Shots
9.40N=10
5.20
On target
3.30
13%
Conversion
13%
Market history
Similar historical matches
high · Tier A
Comparable matches680
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home56.1%58.7%+2.6 pp
Draw24.4%24.3%-0.2 pp
Away19.5%17.1%-2.5 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.576.6%
Over 2.555.3%
Over 3.529.3%
BTTS54.3%
Historical average
1.85–0.96
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
2-113.2%
1-010.6%
1-110.1%
2-09.0%
0-07.6%
Comparable corner averages
6.16–3.90
Average total10.07
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=680.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.563.2%
Over 9.551.6%
Over 10.541.0%
Over 11.531.2%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches199
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitymoderate
Home FT45.7%39.0%–52.7% CI
Draw FT39.2%32.7%–46.1% CI
Away FT15.1%10.8%–20.7% CI
Remaining goals
1.45
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal73.9%
2+ goals43.2%
3+ goals20.1%
Who scores in 2H
Home60.8%
Away38.7%