Segunda Division · 2025/26
2026-04-11 · 15:15
12.1143.3%
X3.0030.5%
23.4826.3%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Burgos
LLDWWWDWWD
5W 3D 2L · 1.80 PPM
Sp Gijon
LWWLWLDLLL
3W 1D 6L · 1.00 PPM
Goals
1.30
Scored
1.00
0.70
Conceded
1.40
20%
Over 2.5
30%
40%
BTTS
40%
By half
0.90
1H goals
0.90
1.10
2H goals
1.50
80%
Goal in 2H
90%
Corners
4.30N=10
For
5.40N=10
5.20
Against
6.10
9.50
Total
11.50
Signals
Key historical patterns
very strongAt least one second-half goal
8/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.
moderateOver 8.5 corners
6/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.30
Goals scored
1.00
0.70
Goals conceded
1.40
2.00
Total goals
2.40
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Burgos attack
1.30goals per matchSp Gijon conceded1.40Matchup
Sp Gijon attack
1.00goals per matchBurgos conceded0.70Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.60
1H goals scored
0.30
0.30
1H goals conceded
0.60
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.70
2H goals scored
0.70
0.40
2H goals conceded
0.80
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
4.30N=10
Corners for
5.40N=10
5.20
Corners against
6.10
9.50
Match total
11.50
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.30N=10
For
2.00N=10
4.80
Match total
4.20
Over 3.5
Fouls
12.90N=10
Committed
10.80N=10
26.50
Match total
20.40
Shots
11.50N=10
Shots
11.00N=10
3.90
On target
3.80
11%
Conversion
9%
Market history
Similar historical matches
high · Tier A
Comparable matches686
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home43.3%45.8%+2.5 pp
Draw30.5%30.8%+0.3 pp
Away26.3%23.5%-2.8 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.565.6%
Over 2.537.0%
Over 3.518.1%
BTTS45.8%
Historical average
1.30–0.90
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-015.2%
1-114.3%
0-010.9%
2-09.9%
2-18.7%
Comparable corner averages
5.13–3.81
Average total8.95
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=686.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.551.3%
Over 9.539.4%
Over 10.529.2%
Over 11.521.0%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches268
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitymoderate
Home FT36.9%31.4%–42.9% CI
Draw FT42.5%36.8%–48.5% CI
Away FT20.5%16.1%–25.8% CI
Remaining goals
1.19
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal72.0%
2+ goals34.0%
3+ goals10.1%
Who scores in 2H
Home53.7%
Away39.6%