La Liga · 2025/26
2026-05-23 · 20:00
12.4138.7%
X3.3128.2%
22.8233.1%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Alaves
LDWLDDDWLW
3W 4D 3L · 1.30 PPM
Vallecano
LLLLDDLLWD
1W 3D 6L · 0.60 PPM
Goals
1.40
Scored
0.60
1.60
Conceded
1.70
60%
Over 2.5
40%
80%
BTTS
40%
By half
1.00
1H goals
1.30
2.00
2H goals
1.00
90%
Goal in 2H
60%
Corners
6.10N=10
For
4.30N=10
4.50
Against
5.40
10.60
Total
9.70
Signals
Key historical patterns
moderateAt least one second-half goal
9/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.40
Goals scored
0.60
1.60
Goals conceded
1.70
3.00
Total goals
2.30
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Alaves attack
1.40goals per matchVallecano conceded1.70Matchup
Vallecano attack
0.60goals per matchAlaves conceded1.60Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.60
1H goals scored
0.30
0.40
1H goals conceded
1.00
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.80
2H goals scored
0.30
1.20
2H goals conceded
0.70
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
6.10N=10
Corners for
4.30N=10
4.50
Corners against
5.40
10.60
Match total
9.70
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.40N=10
For
4.20N=10
4.90
Match total
6.70
Over 3.5
Fouls
14.10N=10
Committed
15.70N=10
27.40
Match total
27.20
Shots
12.80N=10
Shots
11.10N=10
4.60
On target
3.80
11%
Conversion
5%
Market history
Similar historical matches
high · Tier A
Comparable matches630
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home38.7%39.0%+0.3 pp
Draw28.2%26.2%-2.0 pp
Away33.1%34.8%+1.7 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.573.2%
Over 2.548.9%
Over 3.524.8%
BTTS53.5%
Historical average
1.32–1.24
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-114.0%
1-011.3%
1-210.0%
0-19.0%
2-17.5%
Comparable corner averages
5.17–4.48
Average total9.65
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=630.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.561.7%
Over 9.551.1%
Over 10.538.4%
Over 11.526.5%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches201
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitymoderate
Home FT33.8%27.6%–40.6% CI
Draw FT34.8%28.6%–41.6% CI
Away FT31.3%25.3%–38.1% CI
Remaining goals
1.48
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal79.6%
2+ goals43.3%
3+ goals18.4%
Who scores in 2H
Home55.7%
Away51.7%