La Liga · 2025/26
2026-05-12 · 20:30
12.5137.4%
X3.5126.7%
22.6135.9%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Osasuna
WDWDWDWDWL
5W 4D 1L · 1.90 PPM
Ath Madrid
LWDDLWLLLW
3W 2D 5L · 1.10 PPM
Goals
1.80
Scored
1.20
1.20
Conceded
1.30
70%
Over 2.5
50%
80%
BTTS
40%
By half
1.00
1H goals
1.20
2.00
2H goals
1.30
90%
Goal in 2H
80%
Corners
4.90N=10
For
5.10N=10
4.00
Against
5.40
8.90
Total
10.50
Signals
Key historical patterns
very strongAt least one second-half goal
9/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
moderateOver 8.5 corners
6/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.80
Goals scored
1.20
1.20
Goals conceded
1.30
3.00
Total goals
2.50
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Osasuna attack
1.80goals per matchAth Madrid conceded1.30Matchup
Ath Madrid attack
1.20goals per matchOsasuna conceded1.20Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.60
1H goals scored
0.60
0.40
1H goals conceded
0.60
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
1.20
2H goals scored
0.60
0.80
2H goals conceded
0.70
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
4.90N=10
Corners for
5.10N=10
4.00
Corners against
5.40
8.90
Match total
10.50
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.10N=10
For
2.30N=10
5.00
Match total
4.40
Over 3.5
Fouls
13.90N=10
Committed
12.10N=10
25.50
Match total
21.00
Shots
14.80N=10
Shots
11.40N=10
5.40
On target
3.60
12%
Conversion
11%
Market history
Similar historical matches
high · Tier A
Comparable matches566
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home37.4%33.4%-4.0 pp
Draw26.7%30.4%+3.7 pp
Away35.9%36.2%+0.3 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.577.0%
Over 2.550.4%
Over 3.525.1%
BTTS58.1%
Historical average
1.29–1.35
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-116.3%
1-210.1%
2-19.2%
1-09.2%
0-17.6%
Comparable corner averages
5.19–4.83
Average total10.01
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=566.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.564.8%
Over 9.550.2%
Over 10.539.8%
Over 11.530.4%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches161
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitymoderate
Home FT30.4%23.9%–37.9% CI
Draw FT38.5%31.3%–46.2% CI
Away FT31.1%24.4%–38.6% CI
Remaining goals
1.42
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal78.3%
2+ goals42.9%
3+ goals18.0%
Who scores in 2H
Home54.0%
Away53.4%