La Liga · 2025/26
2026-05-02 · 15:15
11.7852.7%
X3.7724.9%
24.1922.4%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Valencia
WDDDWLWWLW
5W 3D 2L · 1.80 PPM
Ath Madrid
LLWDDLWLLL
2W 2D 6L · 0.80 PPM
Goals
1.50
Scored
1.10
1.30
Conceded
1.60
40%
Over 2.5
60%
70%
BTTS
50%
By half
0.40
1H goals
1.40
2.40
2H goals
1.30
100%
Goal in 2H
80%
Corners
6.10N=10
For
4.80N=10
3.60
Against
5.80
9.70
Total
10.60
Signals
Key historical patterns
very strongAt least one second-half goal
10/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
moderateOver 8.5 corners
6/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.50
Goals scored
1.10
1.30
Goals conceded
1.60
2.80
Total goals
2.70
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Valencia attack
1.50goals per matchAth Madrid conceded1.60Matchup
Ath Madrid attack
1.10goals per matchValencia conceded1.30Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.20
1H goals scored
0.70
0.20
1H goals conceded
0.70
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
1.30
2H goals scored
0.40
1.10
2H goals conceded
0.90
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
6.10N=10
Corners for
4.80N=10
3.60
Corners against
5.80
9.70
Match total
10.60
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.00N=10
For
2.10N=10
5.50
Match total
4.20
Over 3.5
Fouls
13.40N=10
Committed
11.80N=10
27.50
Match total
21.00
Shots
13.30N=10
Shots
10.10N=10
3.30
On target
3.30
11%
Conversion
11%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches250
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home52.7%48.8%-3.9 pp
Draw24.9%25.6%+0.7 pp
Away22.4%25.6%+3.2 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.578.4%
Over 2.556.8%
Over 3.533.6%
BTTS59.6%
Historical average
1.71–1.16
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-111.6%
2-18.8%
1-28.4%
1-08.0%
3-18.0%
Comparable corner averages
6.03–4.46
Average total10.49
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=250.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.568.4%
Over 9.558.0%
Over 10.548.8%
Over 11.536.8%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches65
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT38.5%27.6%–50.6% CI
Draw FT49.2%37.5%–61.1% CI
Away FT12.3%6.4%–22.5% CI
Remaining goals
1.32
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal72.3%
2+ goals44.6%
3+ goals12.3%
Who scores in 2H
Home60.0%
Away41.5%