La Liga · 2025/26
2026-04-25 · 20:00
12.1643.4%
X3.4826.9%
23.1529.7%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Ath Madrid
WWWWWLWWWL
8W 0D 2L · 2.40 PPM
Ath Bilbao
LWLDLLWDLL
2W 2D 6L · 0.80 PPM
Goals
2.00
Scored
0.90
0.90
Conceded
1.90
60%
Over 2.5
50%
50%
BTTS
50%
By half
1.40
1H goals
1.50
1.50
2H goals
1.30
70%
Goal in 2H
90%
Corners
8.00N=10
For
5.30N=10
4.10
Against
3.20
12.10
Total
8.50
Signals
Key historical patterns
strongAt least one second-half goal
7/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.
moderateOver 8.5 corners
9/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
2.00
Goals scored
0.90
0.90
Goals conceded
1.90
2.90
Total goals
2.80
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Ath Madrid attack
2.00goals per matchAth Bilbao conceded1.90Matchup
Ath Bilbao attack
0.90goals per matchAth Madrid conceded0.90Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.90
1H goals scored
0.50
0.50
1H goals conceded
1.00
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
1.10
2H goals scored
0.40
0.40
2H goals conceded
0.90
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
8.00N=10
Corners for
5.30N=10
4.10
Corners against
3.20
12.10
Match total
8.50
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.20N=10
For
2.40N=10
3.50
Match total
4.30
Over 3.5
Fouls
9.80N=10
Committed
14.60N=10
18.00
Match total
25.00
Shots
16.30N=10
Shots
13.90N=10
6.80
On target
4.30
12%
Conversion
6%
Market history
Similar historical matches
high · Tier A
Comparable matches990
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home43.4%44.0%+0.7 pp
Draw26.9%28.7%+1.8 pp
Away29.7%27.3%-2.5 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.575.1%
Over 2.549.6%
Over 3.526.6%
BTTS53.0%
Historical average
1.50–1.13
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-113.3%
1-010.1%
2-19.0%
2-08.4%
1-27.5%
Comparable corner averages
5.62–4.43
Average total10.05
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=989.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.565.1%
Over 9.553.8%
Over 10.542.1%
Over 11.529.9%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches300
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitystrong
Home FT35.7%30.5%–41.2% CI
Draw FT38.7%33.3%–44.3% CI
Away FT25.7%21.1%–30.9% CI
Remaining goals
1.39
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal75.3%
2+ goals42.7%
3+ goals15.0%
Who scores in 2H
Home54.7%
Away44.7%