La Liga · 2025/26
2026-04-11 · 20:00
12.7833.9%
X3.1230.2%
22.6335.9%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Sevilla
WLWLLWDDDL
3W 3D 4L · 1.20 PPM
Ath Madrid
WWLLWDDLWL
4W 2D 4L · 1.40 PPM
Goals
1.00
Scored
1.10
1.20
Conceded
1.10
30%
Over 2.5
40%
40%
BTTS
30%
By half
1.00
1H goals
0.90
1.20
2H goals
1.30
90%
Goal in 2H
80%
Corners
4.40N=10
For
5.10N=10
3.50
Against
4.70
7.90
Total
9.80
Signals
Key historical patterns
very strongAt least one second-half goal
9/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.00
Goals scored
1.10
1.20
Goals conceded
1.10
2.20
Total goals
2.20
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Sevilla attack
1.00goals per matchAth Madrid conceded1.10Matchup
Ath Madrid attack
1.10goals per matchSevilla conceded1.20Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.50
1H goals scored
0.60
0.50
1H goals conceded
0.30
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.50
2H goals scored
0.50
0.70
2H goals conceded
0.80
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
4.40N=10
Corners for
5.10N=10
3.50
Corners against
4.70
7.90
Match total
9.80
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.70N=10
For
1.90N=10
5.00
Match total
3.80
Over 3.5
Fouls
15.20N=10
Committed
12.90N=10
28.40
Match total
22.10
Shots
10.30N=10
Shots
10.40N=10
3.90
On target
3.80
10%
Conversion
11%
Market history
Similar historical matches
medium · Tier A
Comparable matches346
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home33.9%36.4%+2.5 pp
Draw30.2%30.1%-0.2 pp
Away35.9%33.5%-2.3 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.568.2%
Over 2.540.8%
Over 3.522.0%
BTTS50.9%
Historical average
1.22–1.14
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-115.6%
1-013.3%
0-110.1%
0-08.4%
1-28.4%
Comparable corner averages
4.89–4.71
Average total9.60
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=346.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.561.3%
Over 9.547.1%
Over 10.532.7%
Over 11.526.3%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches117
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT34.2%26.2%–43.2% CI
Draw FT35.9%27.8%–44.9% CI
Away FT29.9%22.4%–38.7% CI
Remaining goals
1.27
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal75.2%
2+ goals35.0%
3+ goals11.1%
Who scores in 2H
Home49.6%
Away45.3%