La Liga · 2025/26
2026-03-06 · 20:00
13.1529.9%
X3.3328.3%
22.2541.8%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Celta
DDDLLWWWLW
4W 3D 3L · 1.50 PPM
Real Madrid
LWDDDWWWWL
5W 3D 2L · 1.80 PPM
Goals
1.70
Scored
1.60
1.10
Conceded
1.10
40%
Over 2.5
50%
60%
BTTS
50%
By half
1.10
1H goals
0.90
1.70
2H goals
1.80
100%
Goal in 2H
90%
Corners
4.50N=10
For
6.20N=10
4.40
Against
4.10
8.90
Total
10.30
Signals
Key historical patterns
very strongAt least one second-half goal
10/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.
moderateOver 8.5 corners
6/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.70
Goals scored
1.60
1.10
Goals conceded
1.10
2.80
Total goals
2.70
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Celta attack
1.70goals per matchReal Madrid conceded1.10Matchup
Real Madrid attack
1.60goals per matchCelta conceded1.10Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.50
1H goals scored
0.50
0.60
1H goals conceded
0.40
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
1.20
2H goals scored
1.10
0.50
2H goals conceded
0.70
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
4.50N=10
Corners for
6.20N=10
4.40
Corners against
4.10
8.90
Match total
10.30
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.80N=10
For
1.40N=10
4.90
Match total
4.40
Over 3.5
Fouls
9.70N=10
Committed
10.30N=10
22.10
Match total
25.80
Shots
12.50N=10
Shots
16.10N=10
4.50
On target
5.70
14%
Conversion
10%
Market history
Similar historical matches
high · Tier A
Comparable matches883
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home29.9%30.1%+0.2 pp
Draw28.3%25.0%-3.2 pp
Away41.8%44.8%+3.0 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.573.6%
Over 2.547.9%
Over 3.525.0%
BTTS53.0%
Historical average
1.16–1.44
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-113.0%
1-211.1%
0-110.9%
1-09.2%
0-27.0%
Comparable corner averages
4.64–5.24
Average total9.88
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=883.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.565.1%
Over 9.553.5%
Over 10.540.5%
Over 11.529.7%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches275
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitymoderate
Home FT32.7%27.5%–38.5% CI
Draw FT33.5%28.1%–39.2% CI
Away FT33.8%28.5%–39.6% CI
Remaining goals
1.53
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal79.6%
2+ goals44.4%
3+ goals20.4%
Who scores in 2H
Home52.7%
Away54.9%