La Liga · 2023/24
2024-05-14 · 20:30
11.2179.5%
X7.0313.7%
214.076.8%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Real Madrid
WWWDWWWWWW
9W 1D 0L · 2.80 PPM
Alaves
DLDWWDLLLW
3W 3D 4L · 1.20 PPM
Goals
2.60
Scored
0.80
0.60
Conceded
1.10
60%
Over 2.5
30%
40%
BTTS
20%
By half
1.10
1H goals
0.90
2.10
2H goals
1.00
100%
Goal in 2H
60%
Corners
5.60N=10
For
4.60N=10
3.90
Against
5.20
9.50
Total
9.80
Signals
Key historical patterns
moderateAt least one second-half goal
10/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.
very strongOver 8.5 corners
9/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
2.60
Goals scored
0.80
0.60
Goals conceded
1.10
3.20
Total goals
1.90
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Real Madrid attack
2.60goals per matchAlaves conceded1.10Matchup
Alaves attack
0.80goals per matchReal Madrid conceded0.60Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.80
1H goals scored
0.30
0.30
1H goals conceded
0.60
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
1.80
2H goals scored
0.50
0.30
2H goals conceded
0.50
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
5.60N=10
Corners for
4.60N=10
3.90
Corners against
5.20
9.50
Match total
9.80
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.60N=10
For
2.30N=10
4.40
Match total
4.80
Over 3.5
Fouls
8.70N=10
Committed
12.50N=10
22.10
Match total
24.80
Shots
17.20N=10
Shots
10.50N=10
7.00
On target
3.70
15%
Conversion
8%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches92
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home79.5%84.8%+5.3 pp
Draw13.7%13.0%-0.6 pp
Away6.8%2.2%-4.7 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.590.2%
Over 2.569.6%
Over 3.539.1%
BTTS51.1%
Historical average
2.72–0.66
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
3-015.2%
2-114.1%
2-012.0%
1-18.7%
4-07.6%
Comparable corner averages
7.62–2.80
Average total10.42
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=92.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.572.8%
Over 9.558.7%
Over 10.540.2%
Over 11.530.4%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches19
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT57.9%36.3%–76.9% CI
Draw FT31.6%15.4%–54.0% CI
Away FT10.5%2.9%–31.4% CI
Remaining goals
2.16
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal89.5%
2+ goals68.4%
3+ goals36.8%
Who scores in 2H
Home84.2%
Away42.1%