La Liga · 2023/24
2024-04-28 · 17:30
11.7355.3%
X3.9124.5%
24.7420.2%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Villarreal
LWLWDDDWWL
4W 3D 3L · 1.50 PPM
Vallecano
DLLWDLLLLD
1W 3D 6L · 0.60 PPM
Goals
1.70
Scored
0.40
1.40
Conceded
1.30
60%
Over 2.5
40%
70%
BTTS
20%
By half
1.40
1H goals
0.50
1.70
2H goals
1.20
80%
Goal in 2H
60%
Corners
6.00N=10
For
2.50N=10
3.70
Against
5.30
9.70
Total
7.80
Signals
Key historical patterns
moderateAt least one second-half goal
8/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.70
Goals scored
0.40
1.40
Goals conceded
1.30
3.10
Total goals
1.70
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Villarreal attack
1.70goals per matchVallecano conceded1.30Matchup
Vallecano attack
0.40goals per matchVillarreal conceded1.40Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.60
1H goals scored
0.20
0.80
1H goals conceded
0.30
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
1.10
2H goals scored
0.20
0.60
2H goals conceded
1.00
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
6.00N=10
Corners for
2.50N=10
3.70
Corners against
5.30
9.70
Match total
7.80
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.20N=10
For
3.00N=10
4.10
Match total
5.60
Over 3.5
Fouls
12.40N=10
Committed
13.50N=10
28.00
Match total
28.00
Shots
15.60N=10
Shots
8.60N=10
5.60
On target
2.60
11%
Conversion
5%
Market history
Similar historical matches
medium · Tier A
Comparable matches487
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home55.3%59.1%+3.8 pp
Draw24.5%21.8%-2.7 pp
Away20.2%19.1%-1.1 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.577.4%
Over 2.553.2%
Over 3.527.7%
BTTS52.6%
Historical average
1.82–0.96
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
2-112.3%
1-012.1%
1-111.5%
2-09.7%
3-07.0%
Comparable corner averages
6.13–4.06
Average total10.19
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=487.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.566.7%
Over 9.554.0%
Over 10.543.3%
Over 11.533.9%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches140
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT52.1%43.9%–60.2% CI
Draw FT31.4%24.3%–39.5% CI
Away FT16.4%11.2%–23.4% CI
Remaining goals
1.55
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal81.4%
2+ goals46.4%
3+ goals20.0%
Who scores in 2H
Home67.1%
Away40.0%