La Liga · 2023/24
2024-04-21 · 20:00
11.8751.2%
X3.9624.2%
23.8924.6%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Real Madrid
WWWWWDWWWW
9W 1D 0L · 2.80 PPM
Barcelona
WDDWWWWDWW
7W 3D 0L · 2.40 PPM
Goals
2.70
Scored
1.80
0.50
Conceded
0.70
50%
Over 2.5
50%
40%
BTTS
60%
By half
1.20
1H goals
0.70
2.00
2H goals
1.80
100%
Goal in 2H
80%
Corners
5.70N=10
For
4.80N=10
3.10
Against
5.60
8.80
Total
10.40
Signals
Key historical patterns
very strongAt least one second-half goal
10/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
moderateOver 8.5 corners
7/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
2.70
Goals scored
1.80
0.50
Goals conceded
0.70
3.20
Total goals
2.50
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Real Madrid attack
2.70goals per matchBarcelona conceded0.70Matchup
Barcelona attack
1.80goals per matchReal Madrid conceded0.50Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
1.00
1H goals scored
0.50
0.20
1H goals conceded
0.20
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
1.70
2H goals scored
1.30
0.30
2H goals conceded
0.50
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
5.70N=10
Corners for
4.80N=10
3.10
Corners against
5.60
8.80
Match total
10.40
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.60N=10
For
2.60N=10
4.50
Match total
5.20
Over 3.5
Fouls
8.70N=10
Committed
10.40N=10
23.50
Match total
25.00
Shots
16.60N=10
Shots
12.00N=10
6.40
On target
4.30
16%
Conversion
15%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches84
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home51.2%53.6%+2.4 pp
Draw24.2%22.6%-1.6 pp
Away24.6%23.8%-0.8 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.589.3%
Over 2.569.0%
Over 3.548.8%
BTTS71.4%
Historical average
2.14–1.46
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-110.7%
1-07.1%
1-27.1%
3-07.1%
2-07.1%
Comparable corner averages
6.13–4.30
Average total10.43
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=84.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.578.6%
Over 9.559.5%
Over 10.542.9%
Over 11.532.1%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches14
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT57.1%32.6%–78.6% CI
Draw FT35.7%16.3%–61.2% CI
Away FT7.1%1.3%–31.5% CI
Remaining goals
1.86
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal78.6%
2+ goals50.0%
3+ goals28.6%
Who scores in 2H
Home78.6%
Away28.6%