La Liga · 2023/24
2024-04-21 · 15:15
13.4028.1%
X3.7525.5%
22.0646.4%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Almeria
LLDDDLDDDL
0W 6D 4L · 0.60 PPM
Villarreal
LDLLLWDWWD
3W 3D 4L · 1.20 PPM
Goals
0.60
Scored
1.70
1.50
Conceded
2.20
60%
Over 2.5
70%
40%
BTTS
90%
By half
0.70
1H goals
1.40
1.40
2H goals
2.50
60%
Goal in 2H
90%
Corners
4.40N=10
For
3.20N=10
4.90
Against
8.00
9.30
Total
11.20
Signals
Key historical patterns
moderateOver 2.5 goals
6/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
moderateAt least one second-half goal
6/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.
moderateOver 8.5 corners
6/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
0.60
Goals scored
1.70
1.50
Goals conceded
2.20
2.10
Total goals
3.90
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Almeria attack
0.60goals per matchVillarreal conceded2.20Matchup
Villarreal attack
1.70goals per matchAlmeria conceded1.50Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.20
1H goals scored
0.50
0.50
1H goals conceded
0.90
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.40
2H goals scored
1.20
1.00
2H goals conceded
1.30
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
4.40N=10
Corners for
3.20N=10
4.90
Corners against
8.00
9.30
Match total
11.20
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.20N=10
For
3.20N=10
4.10
Match total
5.50
Over 3.5
Fouls
13.30N=10
Committed
12.90N=10
26.00
Match total
23.70
Shots
12.80N=10
Shots
8.70N=10
4.20
On target
3.90
5%
Conversion
20%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches88
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home28.1%30.7%+2.6 pp
Draw25.5%22.7%-2.8 pp
Away46.4%46.6%+0.2 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.586.4%
Over 2.563.6%
Over 3.539.8%
BTTS65.9%
Historical average
1.36–1.82
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-114.8%
1-29.1%
0-16.8%
2-26.8%
1-06.8%
Comparable corner averages
4.47–5.16
Average total9.63
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=88.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.564.8%
Over 9.550.0%
Over 10.535.2%
Over 11.529.5%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches18
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT38.9%20.3%–61.4% CI
Draw FT27.8%12.5%–50.9% CI
Away FT33.3%16.3%–56.3% CI
Remaining goals
2.11
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal100.0%
2+ goals66.7%
3+ goals27.8%
Who scores in 2H
Home83.3%
Away66.7%