La Liga · 2023/24
2024-04-01 · 20:00
13.0031.9%
X3.7125.8%
22.2742.2%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Villarreal
DLWLWDDDWW
4W 4D 2L · 1.60 PPM
Ath Madrid
WLLLLWDLDL
2W 2D 6L · 0.80 PPM
Goals
1.70
Scored
1.10
1.30
Conceded
1.50
50%
Over 2.5
40%
70%
BTTS
40%
By half
1.30
1H goals
1.20
1.70
2H goals
1.40
80%
Goal in 2H
80%
Corners
6.60N=10
For
5.10N=10
3.70
Against
4.20
10.30
Total
9.30
Signals
Key historical patterns
very strongAt least one second-half goal
8/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
strongOver 8.5 corners
7/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.70
Goals scored
1.10
1.30
Goals conceded
1.50
3.00
Total goals
2.60
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Villarreal attack
1.70goals per matchAth Madrid conceded1.50Matchup
Ath Madrid attack
1.10goals per matchVillarreal conceded1.30Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.60
1H goals scored
0.40
0.70
1H goals conceded
0.80
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
1.10
2H goals scored
0.70
0.60
2H goals conceded
0.70
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
6.60N=10
Corners for
5.10N=10
3.70
Corners against
4.20
10.30
Match total
9.30
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.30N=10
For
2.50N=10
4.20
Match total
4.20
Over 3.5
Fouls
12.50N=10
Committed
11.40N=10
26.90
Match total
22.60
Shots
15.70N=10
Shots
12.10N=10
5.70
On target
5.90
11%
Conversion
9%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches152
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home31.9%30.3%-1.7 pp
Draw25.8%33.6%+7.7 pp
Away42.2%36.2%-6.0 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.583.6%
Over 2.556.6%
Over 3.537.5%
BTTS69.7%
Historical average
1.43–1.59
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-117.8%
2-19.2%
1-27.9%
2-27.2%
1-35.9%
Comparable corner averages
4.64–4.94
Average total9.58
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=152.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.560.5%
Over 9.549.3%
Over 10.540.1%
Over 11.526.3%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches39
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT25.6%14.6%–41.1% CI
Draw FT46.2%31.6%–61.4% CI
Away FT28.2%16.5%–43.8% CI
Remaining goals
1.72
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal76.9%
2+ goals56.4%
3+ goals20.5%
Who scores in 2H
Home56.4%
Away61.5%