La Liga · 2022/23
2023-04-30 · 20:00
15.2118.4%
X4.0123.9%
21.6657.7%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Valladolid
WWLLWDWLDW
5W 2D 3L · 1.70 PPM
Ath Madrid
WLLDWWDWWL
5W 2D 3L · 1.70 PPM
Goals
1.10
Scored
1.10
1.10
Conceded
0.90
40%
Over 2.5
30%
40%
BTTS
50%
By half
0.60
1H goals
0.70
1.60
2H goals
1.30
70%
Goal in 2H
70%
Corners
5.20N=10
For
3.70N=10
6.60
Against
4.80
11.80
Total
8.50
Signals
Key historical patterns
strongAt least one second-half goal
7/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.10
Goals scored
1.10
1.10
Goals conceded
0.90
2.20
Total goals
2.00
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Valladolid attack
1.10goals per matchAth Madrid conceded0.90Matchup
Ath Madrid attack
1.10goals per matchValladolid conceded1.10Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.50
1H goals scored
0.30
0.10
1H goals conceded
0.40
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.60
2H goals scored
0.80
1.00
2H goals conceded
0.50
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
5.20N=10
Corners for
3.70N=10
6.60
Corners against
4.80
11.80
Match total
8.50
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.10N=10
For
2.90N=10
4.00
Match total
5.40
Over 3.5
Fouls
11.90N=10
Committed
12.10N=10
25.50
Match total
23.60
Shots
13.40N=10
Shots
12.40N=10
5.00
On target
4.10
8%
Conversion
9%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches102
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home18.4%16.7%-1.7 pp
Draw23.9%17.6%-6.2 pp
Away57.7%65.7%+8.0 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.580.4%
Over 2.557.8%
Over 3.532.4%
BTTS55.9%
Historical average
0.94–1.87
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-214.7%
1-312.7%
0-210.8%
0-110.8%
1-19.8%
Comparable corner averages
3.89–6.06
Average total9.95
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=102.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.561.8%
Over 9.550.0%
Over 10.542.2%
Over 11.531.4%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches22
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT18.2%7.3%–38.5% CI
Draw FT36.4%19.7%–57.0% CI
Away FT45.5%26.9%–65.3% CI
Remaining goals
1.27
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal77.3%
2+ goals36.4%
3+ goals13.6%
Who scores in 2H
Home40.9%
Away63.6%