La Liga · 2022/23
2023-04-23 · 20:00
12.8233.9%
X3.3828.3%
22.5337.8%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Sevilla
DLLWWWWLWD
5W 2D 3L · 1.70 PPM
Villarreal
LLLWDLLWWW
4W 1D 5L · 1.30 PPM
Goals
1.60
Scored
1.30
1.10
Conceded
1.50
60%
Over 2.5
50%
60%
BTTS
40%
By half
1.40
1H goals
1.40
1.30
2H goals
1.40
70%
Goal in 2H
80%
Corners
6.80N=10
For
4.70N=10
3.10
Against
6.60
9.90
Total
11.30
Signals
Key historical patterns
strongAt least one second-half goal
7/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
moderateOver 8.5 corners
7/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.60
Goals scored
1.30
1.10
Goals conceded
1.50
2.70
Total goals
2.80
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Sevilla attack
1.60goals per matchVillarreal conceded1.50Matchup
Villarreal attack
1.30goals per matchSevilla conceded1.10Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.90
1H goals scored
0.50
0.50
1H goals conceded
0.90
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.70
2H goals scored
0.80
0.60
2H goals conceded
0.60
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
6.80N=10
Corners for
4.70N=10
3.10
Corners against
6.60
9.90
Match total
11.30
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
3.60N=10
For
2.10N=10
6.60
Match total
4.30
Over 3.5
Fouls
10.20N=10
Committed
10.50N=10
24.70
Match total
25.00
Shots
15.50N=10
Shots
9.60N=10
5.50
On target
3.50
10%
Conversion
14%
Market history
Similar historical matches
medium · Tier A
Comparable matches475
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home33.9%31.8%-2.1 pp
Draw28.3%27.8%-0.5 pp
Away37.8%40.4%+2.6 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.572.0%
Over 2.546.5%
Over 3.525.9%
BTTS53.1%
Historical average
1.21–1.36
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-113.5%
0-112.0%
1-08.2%
0-07.8%
1-27.6%
Comparable corner averages
5.09–4.99
Average total10.08
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=475.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.565.1%
Over 9.552.8%
Over 10.542.3%
Over 11.532.0%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches153
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitymoderate
Home FT23.5%17.5%–30.8% CI
Draw FT37.9%30.6%–45.8% CI
Away FT38.6%31.2%–46.5% CI
Remaining goals
1.40
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal75.8%
2+ goals40.5%
3+ goals13.7%
Who scores in 2H
Home41.2%
Away58.2%