La Liga · 2022/23
2023-03-18 · 20:00
11.5761.1%
X3.9524.3%
26.5314.7%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Ath Madrid
LWDDWLWDWW
5W 3D 2L · 1.80 PPM
Valencia
DWDDLLLLLL
1W 3D 6L · 0.60 PPM
Goals
1.80
Scored
0.70
0.80
Conceded
1.30
40%
Over 2.5
30%
60%
BTTS
50%
By half
1.10
1H goals
0.70
1.50
2H goals
1.30
80%
Goal in 2H
80%
Corners
6.60N=10
For
5.20N=10
2.80
Against
5.70
9.40
Total
10.90
Signals
Key historical patterns
very strongAt least one second-half goal
8/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
moderateOver 8.5 corners
6/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.80
Goals scored
0.70
0.80
Goals conceded
1.30
2.60
Total goals
2.00
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Ath Madrid attack
1.80goals per matchValencia conceded1.30Matchup
Valencia attack
0.70goals per matchAth Madrid conceded0.80Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.70
1H goals scored
0.40
0.40
1H goals conceded
0.30
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
1.10
2H goals scored
0.30
0.40
2H goals conceded
1.00
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
6.60N=10
Corners for
5.20N=10
2.80
Corners against
5.70
9.40
Match total
10.90
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.50N=10
For
2.40N=10
5.30
Match total
4.90
Over 3.5
Fouls
11.50N=10
Committed
15.10N=10
25.00
Match total
27.10
Shots
16.70N=10
Shots
11.50N=10
5.70
On target
3.40
11%
Conversion
6%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches126
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home61.1%70.6%+9.6 pp
Draw24.3%23.8%-0.5 pp
Away14.7%5.6%-9.1 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.569.8%
Over 2.551.6%
Over 3.523.0%
BTTS39.7%
Historical average
1.86–0.58
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-020.6%
3-014.3%
2-111.9%
2-011.1%
2-29.5%
Comparable corner averages
5.48–3.44
Average total8.91
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=126.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.556.3%
Over 9.543.7%
Over 10.527.8%
Over 11.516.7%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches46
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT63.0%48.6%–75.5% CI
Draw FT34.8%22.7%–49.2% CI
Away FT2.2%0.4%–11.3% CI
Remaining goals
1.41
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal76.1%
2+ goals37.0%
3+ goals19.6%
Who scores in 2H
Home76.1%
Away21.7%