La Liga · 2022/23
2023-03-05 · 17:30
13.0431.5%
X3.1330.6%
22.5337.9%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Vallecano
WWDWWDLLWD
5W 3D 2L · 1.80 PPM
Ath Bilbao
WDDLLDLLWL
2W 3D 5L · 0.90 PPM
Goals
1.60
Scored
1.10
1.00
Conceded
1.60
50%
Over 2.5
60%
60%
BTTS
60%
By half
1.50
1H goals
1.50
1.10
2H goals
1.20
60%
Goal in 2H
90%
Corners
6.10N=10
For
3.80N=10
4.10
Against
4.60
10.20
Total
8.40
Signals
Key historical patterns
moderateBoth teams scored
6/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.
moderateAt least one second-half goal
6/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.60
Goals scored
1.10
1.00
Goals conceded
1.60
2.60
Total goals
2.70
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Vallecano attack
1.60goals per matchAth Bilbao conceded1.60Matchup
Ath Bilbao attack
1.10goals per matchVallecano conceded1.00Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.70
1H goals scored
0.70
0.80
1H goals conceded
0.80
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.90
2H goals scored
0.40
0.20
2H goals conceded
0.80
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
6.10N=10
Corners for
3.80N=10
4.10
Corners against
4.60
10.20
Match total
8.40
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
3.00N=10
For
1.90N=10
5.90
Match total
4.90
Over 3.5
Fouls
14.60N=10
Committed
13.90N=10
27.40
Match total
26.80
Shots
16.00N=10
Shots
10.70N=10
5.70
On target
3.30
10%
Conversion
10%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches159
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home31.5%28.3%-3.2 pp
Draw30.6%30.2%-0.4 pp
Away37.9%41.5%+3.6 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.564.2%
Over 2.541.5%
Over 3.522.6%
BTTS50.3%
Historical average
1.07–1.23
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
0-115.1%
0-012.6%
1-111.9%
1-210.1%
1-08.2%
Comparable corner averages
4.45–5.17
Average total9.62
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=159.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.561.6%
Over 9.550.9%
Over 10.537.1%
Over 11.529.6%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches57
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT26.3%16.6%–39.0% CI
Draw FT49.1%36.6%–61.7% CI
Away FT24.6%15.2%–37.1% CI
Remaining goals
1.12
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal64.9%
2+ goals33.3%
3+ goals10.5%
Who scores in 2H
Home45.6%
Away42.1%