La Liga · 2022/23
2023-02-25 · 17:30
11.8252.8%
X3.6526.3%
24.6020.9%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Real Madrid
WWDWWDWDWW
7W 3D 0L · 2.40 PPM
Ath Madrid
WDWWWLLDWW
6W 2D 2L · 2.00 PPM
Goals
2.20
Scored
1.20
0.70
Conceded
0.70
60%
Over 2.5
20%
70%
BTTS
40%
By half
1.20
1H goals
0.60
1.70
2H goals
1.30
90%
Goal in 2H
80%
Corners
6.50N=10
For
4.20N=10
2.80
Against
5.30
9.30
Total
9.50
Signals
Key historical patterns
very strongAt least one second-half goal
9/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
2.20
Goals scored
1.20
0.70
Goals conceded
0.70
2.90
Total goals
1.90
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Real Madrid attack
2.20goals per matchAth Madrid conceded0.70Matchup
Ath Madrid attack
1.20goals per matchReal Madrid conceded0.70Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
1.00
1H goals scored
0.30
0.20
1H goals conceded
0.30
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
1.20
2H goals scored
0.90
0.50
2H goals conceded
0.40
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
6.50N=10
Corners for
4.20N=10
2.80
Corners against
5.30
9.30
Match total
9.50
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.80N=10
For
3.10N=10
4.60
Match total
5.90
Over 3.5
Fouls
9.70N=10
Committed
13.70N=10
23.60
Match total
26.90
Shots
19.40N=10
Shots
12.70N=10
6.30
On target
4.90
11%
Conversion
9%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches290
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home52.8%58.6%+5.8 pp
Draw26.3%26.6%+0.2 pp
Away20.9%14.8%-6.1 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.571.4%
Over 2.545.5%
Over 3.525.2%
BTTS48.3%
Historical average
1.69–0.81
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
2-013.4%
1-013.1%
2-112.1%
1-111.0%
0-09.7%
Comparable corner averages
6.03–4.11
Average total10.14
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=290.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.567.6%
Over 9.551.7%
Over 10.542.8%
Over 11.534.5%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches97
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT40.2%31.0%–50.2% CI
Draw FT42.3%32.9%–52.2% CI
Away FT17.5%11.2%–26.3% CI
Remaining goals
1.18
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal71.1%
2+ goals37.1%
3+ goals7.2%
Who scores in 2H
Home55.7%
Away35.1%