La Liga · 2020/21
2021-02-28 · 20:00
13.2029.9%
X3.0231.6%
22.4838.5%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Villarreal
WWWDDDWDDL
4W 5D 1L · 1.70 PPM
Ath Madrid
WWWLWWWWWD
8W 1D 1L · 2.50 PPM
Goals
1.50
Scored
1.90
1.00
Conceded
0.90
50%
Over 2.5
50%
80%
BTTS
60%
By half
1.40
1H goals
1.10
1.10
2H goals
1.70
80%
Goal in 2H
90%
Corners
3.90N=10
For
4.50N=10
3.20
Against
3.50
7.10
Total
8.00
Signals
Key historical patterns
moderateBoth teams scored
8/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.
very strongAt least one second-half goal
8/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.50
Goals scored
1.90
1.00
Goals conceded
0.90
2.50
Total goals
2.80
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Villarreal attack
1.50goals per matchAth Madrid conceded0.90Matchup
Ath Madrid attack
1.90goals per matchVillarreal conceded1.00Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.80
1H goals scored
0.70
0.60
1H goals conceded
0.40
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.70
2H goals scored
1.20
0.40
2H goals conceded
0.50
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
3.90N=10
Corners for
4.50N=10
3.20
Corners against
3.50
7.10
Match total
8.00
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.70N=10
For
3.40N=10
3.80
Match total
4.80
Over 3.5
Fouls
13.10N=10
Committed
13.40N=10
26.20
Match total
27.00
Shots
11.30N=10
Shots
9.70N=10
4.40
On target
4.20
13%
Conversion
20%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches65
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home29.9%23.1%-6.8 pp
Draw31.6%30.8%-0.9 pp
Away38.5%46.2%+7.6 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.567.7%
Over 2.540.0%
Over 3.523.1%
BTTS44.6%
Historical average
1.05–1.31
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
0-115.4%
0-212.3%
0-010.8%
2-29.2%
1-29.2%
Comparable corner averages
4.28–4.86
Average total9.14
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=65.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.555.4%
Over 9.547.7%
Over 10.532.3%
Over 11.524.6%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches23
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT21.7%9.7%–41.9% CI
Draw FT47.8%29.2%–67.0% CI
Away FT30.4%15.6%–50.9% CI
Remaining goals
1.26
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal69.6%
2+ goals39.1%
3+ goals17.4%
Who scores in 2H
Home47.8%
Away47.8%