La Liga · 2019/20
2020-02-23 · 20:00
11.6657.4%
X3.7225.6%
25.6316.9%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Ath Madrid
DDDWWLWWDW
5W 4D 1L · 1.90 PPM
Villarreal
LLWLLLWWWD
4W 1D 5L · 1.30 PPM
Goals
1.10
Scored
1.30
0.40
Conceded
1.50
20%
Over 2.5
80%
30%
BTTS
90%
By half
0.80
1H goals
1.10
0.70
2H goals
1.70
50%
Goal in 2H
80%
Corners
6.50N=10
For
4.10N=10
4.70
Against
6.70
11.20
Total
10.80
Signals
Key historical patterns
very strongOver 8.5 corners
8/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.10
Goals scored
1.30
0.40
Goals conceded
1.50
1.50
Total goals
2.80
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Ath Madrid attack
1.10goals per matchVillarreal conceded1.50Matchup
Villarreal attack
1.30goals per matchAth Madrid conceded0.40Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.60
1H goals scored
0.50
0.20
1H goals conceded
0.60
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.50
2H goals scored
0.80
0.20
2H goals conceded
0.90
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
6.50N=10
Corners for
4.10N=10
4.70
Corners against
6.70
11.20
Match total
10.80
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.30N=10
For
2.10N=10
5.50
Match total
4.40
Over 3.5
Fouls
13.50N=10
Committed
14.70N=10
26.60
Match total
26.00
Shots
14.20N=10
Shots
13.50N=10
4.20
On target
4.20
8%
Conversion
10%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches38
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home57.4%42.1%-15.3 pp
Draw25.6%28.9%+3.3 pp
Away16.9%28.9%+12.0 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.578.9%
Over 2.542.1%
Over 3.523.7%
BTTS55.3%
Historical average
1.42–1.13
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-121.1%
0-110.5%
2-010.5%
1-07.9%
2-17.9%
Comparable corner averages
5.71–4.11
Average total9.82
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=38.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.550.0%
Over 9.547.4%
Over 10.539.5%
Over 11.528.9%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches16
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT43.8%23.1%–66.8% CI
Draw FT31.3%14.2%–55.6% CI
Away FT25.0%10.2%–49.5% CI
Remaining goals
1.81
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal93.8%
2+ goals62.5%
3+ goals18.8%
Who scores in 2H
Home75.0%
Away56.3%