Serie A · 2025/26
2026-05-04 · 19:45
11.6158.0%
X3.9423.7%
25.0818.4%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Roma
WWWDWWDWWD
7W 3D 0L · 2.40 PPM
Fiorentina
LLDWLWLWWD
4W 2D 4L · 1.40 PPM

Goals

2.00
Scored
1.40
0.60
Conceded
1.50
40%
Over 2.5
70%
40%
BTTS
70%

By half

0.90
1H goals
1.10
1.70
2H goals
1.80
90%
Goal in 2H
100%

Corners

6.00N=10
For
2.70N=10
2.30
Against
5.80
8.30
Total
8.50
Signals

Key historical patterns

very strongAt least one second-half goal

9/10 home-side sample · 10/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
2.00
Goals scored
1.40
0.60
Goals conceded
1.50
2.60
Total goals
2.90
80%8/10
Over 1.5
80%8/10
40%4/10
Over 2.5
70%7/10
20%2/10
Over 3.5
30%3/10
40%4/10
BTTS
70%7/10
Matchup

Roma attack

2.00goals per match
Fiorentina conceded1.50
Matchup

Fiorentina attack

1.40goals per match
Roma conceded0.60
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.80
1H goals scored
0.70
0.10
1H goals conceded
0.40
50%5/10
Over 0.5 1H
70%7/10
40%4/10
Leading at HT
40%4/10
1.20
2H goals scored
0.70
0.50
2H goals conceded
1.10
90%9/10
Over 0.5 2H
100%10/10
60%6/10
More goals in 2H
70%7/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
6.00N=10
Corners for
2.70N=10
2.30
Corners against
5.80
8.30
Match total
8.50
40%4/10
Over 8.5
40%4/10
30%3/10
Over 9.5
40%4/10
80%8/10
Team over 4.5
20%2/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

1.30N=10
For
2.20N=10
3.30
Match total
4.40
50%5/10
Over 3.5
70%7/10

Fouls

12.50N=10
Committed
13.10N=10
25.30
Match total
27.20

Shots

16.10N=10
Shots
10.60N=10
5.40
On target
3.20
12%
Conversion
13%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

medium · Tier A
Comparable matches442
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home58.0%59.3%+1.3 pp
Draw23.7%24.2%+0.5 pp
Away18.4%16.5%-1.9 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.574.4%
Over 2.549.3%
Over 3.525.3%
BTTS50.2%

Historical average

1.750.90

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

1-013.1%
2-112.4%
1-111.5%
2-011.1%
0-16.8%

Comparable corner averages

6.053.78
Average total9.83

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=442.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.560.0%
Over 9.550.7%
Over 10.538.7%
Over 11.529.2%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches143
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT49.0%40.9%–57.1% CI
Draw FT32.9%25.7%–40.9% CI
Away FT18.2%12.7%–25.3% CI

Remaining goals

1.46

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal82.5%
2+ goals42.0%
3+ goals15.4%

Who scores in 2H

Home65.0%
Away40.6%