Serie A · 2025/26
2026-05-03 · 14:00
14.4920.8%
X3.9823.5%
21.6855.7%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Sassuolo
LDLWLWWLWW
5W 1D 4L · 1.60 PPM
Milan
WDWDWWWLLW
6W 2D 2L · 2.00 PPM
Goals
1.10
Scored
1.40
1.40
Conceded
0.60
60%
Over 2.5
30%
40%
BTTS
40%
By half
1.40
1H goals
0.70
1.10
2H goals
1.30
60%
Goal in 2H
80%
Corners
4.20N=10
For
4.00N=10
5.40
Against
5.20
9.60
Total
9.20
Signals
Key historical patterns
moderateAt least one second-half goal
6/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.10
Goals scored
1.40
1.40
Goals conceded
0.60
2.50
Total goals
2.00
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Sassuolo attack
1.10goals per matchMilan conceded0.60Matchup
Milan attack
1.40goals per matchSassuolo conceded1.40Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.70
1H goals scored
0.50
0.70
1H goals conceded
0.20
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.40
2H goals scored
0.90
0.70
2H goals conceded
0.40
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
4.20N=10
Corners for
4.00N=10
5.40
Corners against
5.20
9.60
Match total
9.20
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.70N=10
For
1.20N=10
3.20
Match total
3.10
Over 3.5
Fouls
10.80N=10
Committed
9.80N=10
22.80
Match total
20.90
Shots
8.90N=10
Shots
10.30N=10
3.30
On target
3.10
12%
Conversion
14%
Market history
Similar historical matches
medium · Tier A
Comparable matches319
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home20.8%16.0%-4.8 pp
Draw23.5%20.7%-2.8 pp
Away55.7%63.3%+7.7 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.581.5%
Over 2.558.9%
Over 3.533.9%
BTTS56.7%
Historical average
0.99–1.98
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
0-111.3%
1-211.3%
0-210.3%
1-19.4%
1-37.5%
Comparable corner averages
4.23–5.59
Average total9.82
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=319.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.562.4%
Over 9.549.8%
Over 10.537.9%
Over 11.527.9%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches80
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT21.3%13.7%–31.4% CI
Draw FT28.7%20.0%–39.5% CI
Away FT50.0%39.3%–60.7% CI
Remaining goals
1.64
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal81.3%
2+ goals47.5%
3+ goals25.0%
Who scores in 2H
Home42.5%
Away67.5%