Serie A · 2025/26
2026-04-20 · 19:45
13.4227.4%
X3.2828.6%
22.1344.0%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Lecce
WWLLLDWLWL
4W 1D 5L · 1.30 PPM
Fiorentina
LLLDWLWLWW
4W 1D 5L · 1.30 PPM
Goals
0.80
Scored
1.30
1.50
Conceded
1.60
60%
Over 2.5
70%
40%
BTTS
60%
By half
1.00
1H goals
1.10
1.30
2H goals
1.80
90%
Goal in 2H
100%
Corners
4.60N=10
For
3.00N=10
3.80
Against
5.70
8.40
Total
8.70
Signals
Key historical patterns
moderateOver 2.5 goals
6/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
very strongAt least one second-half goal
9/10 home-side sample · 10/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
0.80
Goals scored
1.30
1.50
Goals conceded
1.60
2.30
Total goals
2.90
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Lecce attack
0.80goals per matchFiorentina conceded1.60Matchup
Fiorentina attack
1.30goals per matchLecce conceded1.50Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.60
1H goals scored
0.60
0.40
1H goals conceded
0.50
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.20
2H goals scored
0.70
1.10
2H goals conceded
1.10
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
4.60N=10
Corners for
3.00N=10
3.80
Corners against
5.70
8.40
Match total
8.70
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.70N=10
For
2.10N=10
3.80
Match total
4.20
Over 3.5
Fouls
13.30N=10
Committed
12.80N=10
30.10
Match total
27.60
Shots
11.20N=10
Shots
11.60N=10
2.20
On target
3.20
7%
Conversion
11%
Market history
Similar historical matches
high · Tier A
Comparable matches632
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home27.4%24.1%-3.4 pp
Draw28.6%29.4%+0.9 pp
Away44.0%46.5%+2.5 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.567.1%
Over 2.543.2%
Over 3.521.4%
BTTS47.9%
Historical average
0.96–1.39
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
0-114.4%
1-113.1%
0-010.3%
1-29.0%
1-08.2%
Comparable corner averages
4.44–5.15
Average total9.59
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=632.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.560.8%
Over 9.548.6%
Over 10.538.4%
Over 11.527.8%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches210
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitymoderate
Home FT19.0%14.3%–24.9% CI
Draw FT42.9%36.4%–49.6% CI
Away FT38.1%31.8%–44.8% CI
Remaining goals
1.18
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal69.0%
2+ goals30.5%
3+ goals12.9%
Who scores in 2H
Home34.3%
Away55.2%