Serie A · 2025/26
2026-04-20 · 19:45
13.4227.4%
X3.2828.6%
22.1344.0%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Lecce
WWLLLDWLWL
4W 1D 5L · 1.30 PPM
Fiorentina
LLLDWLWLWW
4W 1D 5L · 1.30 PPM

Goals

0.80
Scored
1.30
1.50
Conceded
1.60
60%
Over 2.5
70%
40%
BTTS
60%

By half

1.00
1H goals
1.10
1.30
2H goals
1.80
90%
Goal in 2H
100%

Corners

4.60N=10
For
3.00N=10
3.80
Against
5.70
8.40
Total
8.70
Signals

Key historical patterns

moderateOver 2.5 goals

6/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.

very strongAt least one second-half goal

9/10 home-side sample · 10/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
0.80
Goals scored
1.30
1.50
Goals conceded
1.60
2.30
Total goals
2.90
80%8/10
Over 1.5
80%8/10
60%6/10
Over 2.5
70%7/10
0%0/10
Over 3.5
30%3/10
40%4/10
BTTS
60%6/10
Matchup

Lecce attack

0.80goals per match
Fiorentina conceded1.60
Matchup

Fiorentina attack

1.30goals per match
Lecce conceded1.50
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.60
1H goals scored
0.60
0.40
1H goals conceded
0.50
70%7/10
Over 0.5 1H
70%7/10
30%3/10
Leading at HT
30%3/10
0.20
2H goals scored
0.70
1.10
2H goals conceded
1.10
90%9/10
Over 0.5 2H
100%10/10
50%5/10
More goals in 2H
70%7/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
4.60N=10
Corners for
3.00N=10
3.80
Corners against
5.70
8.40
Match total
8.70
40%4/10
Over 8.5
50%5/10
40%4/10
Over 9.5
40%4/10
30%3/10
Team over 4.5
30%3/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

1.70N=10
For
2.10N=10
3.80
Match total
4.20
50%5/10
Over 3.5
70%7/10

Fouls

13.30N=10
Committed
12.80N=10
30.10
Match total
27.60

Shots

11.20N=10
Shots
11.60N=10
2.20
On target
3.20
7%
Conversion
11%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

high · Tier A
Comparable matches632
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home27.4%24.1%-3.4 pp
Draw28.6%29.4%+0.9 pp
Away44.0%46.5%+2.5 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.567.1%
Over 2.543.2%
Over 3.521.4%
BTTS47.9%

Historical average

0.961.39

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

0-114.4%
1-113.1%
0-010.3%
1-29.0%
1-08.2%

Comparable corner averages

4.445.15
Average total9.59

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=632.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.560.8%
Over 9.548.6%
Over 10.538.4%
Over 11.527.8%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches210
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitymoderate
Home FT19.0%14.3%–24.9% CI
Draw FT42.9%36.4%–49.6% CI
Away FT38.1%31.8%–44.8% CI

Remaining goals

1.18

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal69.0%
2+ goals30.5%
3+ goals12.9%

Who scores in 2H

Home34.3%
Away55.2%