Serie A · 2025/26
2026-04-06 · 19:45
12.5237.2%
X2.9831.4%
22.9831.4%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Napoli
DWWDDWWDWW
6W 4D 0L · 2.20 PPM
Milan
WWWDWDWWWL
7W 2D 1L · 2.30 PPM

Goals

1.60
Scored
1.70
0.90
Conceded
0.70
70%
Over 2.5
40%
70%
BTTS
50%

By half

1.20
1H goals
0.90
1.30
2H goals
1.50
70%
Goal in 2H
90%

Corners

6.00N=10
For
4.10N=10
2.50
Against
5.30
8.50
Total
9.40
Signals

Key historical patterns

strongAt least one second-half goal

7/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.60
Goals scored
1.70
0.90
Goals conceded
0.70
2.50
Total goals
2.40
70%7/10
Over 1.5
70%7/10
70%7/10
Over 2.5
40%4/10
30%3/10
Over 3.5
20%2/10
70%7/10
BTTS
50%5/10
Matchup

Napoli attack

1.60goals per match
Milan conceded0.70
Matchup

Milan attack

1.70goals per match
Napoli conceded0.90
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.80
1H goals scored
0.50
0.40
1H goals conceded
0.40
80%8/10
Over 0.5 1H
50%5/10
50%5/10
Leading at HT
20%2/10
0.80
2H goals scored
1.20
0.50
2H goals conceded
0.30
70%7/10
Over 0.5 2H
90%9/10
40%4/10
More goals in 2H
60%6/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
6.00N=10
Corners for
4.10N=10
2.50
Corners against
5.30
8.50
Match total
9.40
40%4/10
Over 8.5
60%6/10
20%2/10
Over 9.5
60%6/10
70%7/10
Team over 4.5
40%4/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

0.90N=10
For
1.50N=10
2.90
Match total
3.30
20%2/10
Over 3.5
40%4/10

Fouls

11.50N=10
Committed
10.20N=10
24.10
Match total
21.60

Shots

13.10N=10
Shots
11.40N=10
5.60
On target
3.60
12%
Conversion
15%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

high · Tier A
Comparable matches538
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home37.2%33.3%-3.9 pp
Draw31.4%34.9%+3.5 pp
Away31.4%31.8%+0.4 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.565.4%
Over 2.537.2%
Over 3.518.2%
BTTS48.0%

Historical average

1.111.10

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

1-117.8%
0-012.1%
1-011.5%
0-111.0%
2-17.4%

Comparable corner averages

5.024.40
Average total9.42

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=537.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.558.8%
Over 9.548.6%
Over 10.537.1%
Over 11.527.2%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches202
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitymoderate
Home FT29.7%23.8%–36.3% CI
Draw FT46.0%39.3%–52.9% CI
Away FT24.3%18.9%–30.6% CI

Remaining goals

1.21

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal67.8%
2+ goals35.6%
3+ goals12.9%

Who scores in 2H

Home47.0%
Away43.1%