2. Bundesliga · 2023/24
2024-05-11 · 19:30
12.4438.5%
X3.6026.1%
22.6535.4%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Holstein Kiel
WWWLWLWWWL
7W 0D 3L · 2.10 PPM
Fortuna Dusseldorf
WWDLDDWWWD
5W 4D 1L · 1.90 PPM
Goals
2.30
Scored
2.70
1.30
Conceded
1.40
70%
Over 2.5
80%
50%
BTTS
70%
By half
1.70
1H goals
1.70
1.90
2H goals
2.40
90%
Goal in 2H
100%
Corners
6.40N=10
For
4.20N=10
4.20
Against
4.80
10.60
Total
9.00
Signals
Key historical patterns
strongOver 2.5 goals
7/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
very strongAt least one second-half goal
9/10 home-side sample · 10/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
2.30
Goals scored
2.70
1.30
Goals conceded
1.40
3.60
Total goals
4.10
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Holstein Kiel attack
2.30goals per matchFortuna Dusseldorf conceded1.40Matchup
Fortuna Dusseldorf attack
2.70goals per matchHolstein Kiel conceded1.30Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
1.10
1H goals scored
0.90
0.60
1H goals conceded
0.80
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
1.20
2H goals scored
1.80
0.70
2H goals conceded
0.60
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
6.40N=10
Corners for
4.20N=10
4.20
Corners against
4.80
10.60
Match total
9.00
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.10N=10
For
1.70N=10
4.30
Match total
4.10
Over 3.5
Fouls
11.80N=10
Committed
11.00N=10
22.90
Match total
21.50
Shots
16.10N=10
Shots
11.70N=10
7.40
On target
4.90
14%
Conversion
23%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches44
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home38.5%40.9%+2.4 pp
Draw26.1%18.2%-7.9 pp
Away35.4%40.9%+5.5 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.588.6%
Over 2.563.6%
Over 3.547.7%
BTTS65.9%
Historical average
1.75–1.59
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-111.4%
0-111.4%
3-19.1%
2-26.8%
0-26.8%
Comparable corner averages
4.98–5.11
Average total10.09
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=44.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.563.6%
Over 9.550.0%
Over 10.536.4%
Over 11.534.1%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches10
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT10.0%1.8%–40.4% CI
Draw FT10.0%1.8%–40.4% CI
Away FT80.0%49.0%–94.3% CI
Remaining goals
2.10
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal100.0%
2+ goals70.0%
3+ goals30.0%
Who scores in 2H
Home40.0%
Away90.0%