Serie A · 2024/25
2025-05-05 · 19:45
14.4821.2%
X3.7025.7%
21.7953.1%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Genoa
DDLWWWDWWL
5W 3D 2L · 1.80 PPM
Milan
WWLWLLWLWW
6W 0D 4L · 1.80 PPM

Goals

1.20
Scored
1.70
0.80
Conceded
1.10
30%
Over 2.5
60%
40%
BTTS
50%

By half

0.80
1H goals
0.80
1.20
2H goals
2.00
90%
Goal in 2H
100%

Corners

4.70N=10
For
6.10N=10
5.70
Against
3.60
10.40
Total
9.70
Signals

Key historical patterns

very strongAt least one second-half goal

9/10 home-side sample · 10/10 away-side sample.

strongOver 8.5 corners

7/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.20
Goals scored
1.70
0.80
Goals conceded
1.10
2.00
Total goals
2.80
70%7/10
Over 1.5
90%9/10
30%3/10
Over 2.5
60%6/10
10%1/10
Over 3.5
20%2/10
40%4/10
BTTS
50%5/10
Matchup

Genoa attack

1.20goals per match
Milan conceded1.10
Matchup

Milan attack

1.70goals per match
Genoa conceded0.80
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.30
1H goals scored
0.40
0.50
1H goals conceded
0.40
50%5/10
Over 0.5 1H
60%6/10
10%1/10
Leading at HT
30%3/10
0.90
2H goals scored
1.30
0.30
2H goals conceded
0.70
90%9/10
Over 0.5 2H
100%10/10
40%4/10
More goals in 2H
70%7/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
4.70N=10
Corners for
6.10N=10
5.70
Corners against
3.60
10.40
Match total
9.70
70%7/10
Over 8.5
70%7/10
50%5/10
Over 9.5
40%4/10
50%5/10
Team over 4.5
80%8/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

1.80N=10
For
2.00N=10
3.80
Match total
3.20
70%7/10
Over 3.5
30%3/10

Fouls

12.40N=10
Committed
10.10N=10
25.00
Match total
24.30

Shots

11.60N=10
Shots
14.80N=10
3.90
On target
5.40
10%
Conversion
11%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

low · Tier A
Comparable matches187
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home21.2%23.0%+1.8 pp
Draw25.7%21.9%-3.8 pp
Away53.1%55.1%+2.0 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.574.9%
Over 2.547.1%
Over 3.524.1%
BTTS50.8%

Historical average

0.981.61

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

0-115.0%
1-111.8%
0-211.2%
1-29.6%
2-17.0%

Comparable corner averages

4.135.75
Average total9.88

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=187.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.563.1%
Over 9.552.4%
Over 10.539.6%
Over 11.529.9%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches64
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT28.1%18.6%–40.1% CI
Draw FT26.6%17.3%–38.5% CI
Away FT45.3%33.7%–57.4% CI

Remaining goals

1.66

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal84.4%
2+ goals51.6%
3+ goals21.9%

Who scores in 2H

Home48.4%
Away65.6%