Serie A · 2024/25
2025-04-20 · 19:45
12.5337.5%
X3.4727.3%
22.7035.1%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Milan
WDDDWDWLWD
4W 5D 1L · 1.70 PPM
Atalanta
WWWDDWWWWL
7W 2D 1L · 2.30 PPM
Goals
1.50
Scored
2.30
1.00
Conceded
0.40
50%
Over 2.5
50%
70%
BTTS
30%
By half
1.20
1H goals
1.30
1.30
2H goals
1.40
80%
Goal in 2H
80%
Corners
6.60N=10
For
4.40N=10
4.70
Against
3.10
11.30
Total
7.50
Signals
Key historical patterns
very strongAt least one second-half goal
8/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.50
Goals scored
2.30
1.00
Goals conceded
0.40
2.50
Total goals
2.70
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Milan attack
1.50goals per matchAtalanta conceded0.40Matchup
Atalanta attack
2.30goals per matchMilan conceded1.00Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.60
1H goals scored
1.00
0.60
1H goals conceded
0.30
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.90
2H goals scored
1.30
0.40
2H goals conceded
0.10
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
6.60N=10
Corners for
4.40N=10
4.70
Corners against
3.10
11.30
Match total
7.50
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.80N=10
For
2.20N=10
4.20
Match total
3.50
Over 3.5
Fouls
12.60N=10
Committed
11.80N=10
23.20
Match total
21.50
Shots
17.20N=10
Shots
12.70N=10
5.10
On target
4.80
9%
Conversion
18%
Market history
Similar historical matches
medium · Tier A
Comparable matches336
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home37.5%38.1%+0.6 pp
Draw27.3%28.0%+0.6 pp
Away35.1%33.9%-1.2 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.581.0%
Over 2.555.7%
Over 3.533.9%
BTTS62.8%
Historical average
1.47–1.41
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-114.0%
2-19.2%
1-28.6%
2-27.4%
1-07.1%
Comparable corner averages
5.21–5.08
Average total10.29
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=336.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.567.3%
Over 9.557.1%
Over 10.543.8%
Over 11.535.1%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches81
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT40.7%30.7%–51.6% CI
Draw FT35.8%26.2%–46.7% CI
Away FT23.5%15.6%–33.8% CI
Remaining goals
1.42
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal79.0%
2+ goals43.2%
3+ goals17.3%
Who scores in 2H
Home59.3%
Away48.1%