Serie A · 2023/24
2024-04-28 · 17:00
11.9748.4%
X3.6126.4%
23.8025.1%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Napoli
LWDWWDWDLD
4W 4D 2L · 1.60 PPM
Roma
WLLLWWWDDW
5W 2D 3L · 1.70 PPM

Goals

1.20
Scored
1.60
1.40
Conceded
1.20
70%
Over 2.5
70%
70%
BTTS
60%

By half

0.70
1H goals
0.80
1.90
2H goals
2.00
90%
Goal in 2H
90%

Corners

7.30N=10
For
4.20N=10
3.00
Against
4.70
10.30
Total
8.90
Signals

Key historical patterns

strongOver 2.5 goals

7/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.

moderateBoth teams scored

7/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.

very strongAt least one second-half goal

9/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.

moderateOver 8.5 corners

7/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.20
Goals scored
1.60
1.40
Goals conceded
1.20
2.60
Total goals
2.80
90%9/10
Over 1.5
80%8/10
70%7/10
Over 2.5
70%7/10
10%1/10
Over 3.5
30%3/10
70%7/10
BTTS
60%6/10
Matchup

Napoli attack

1.20goals per match
Roma conceded1.20
Matchup

Roma attack

1.60goals per match
Napoli conceded1.40
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.30
1H goals scored
0.30
0.40
1H goals conceded
0.50
50%5/10
Over 0.5 1H
70%7/10
20%2/10
Leading at HT
20%2/10
0.90
2H goals scored
1.30
1.00
2H goals conceded
0.70
90%9/10
Over 0.5 2H
90%9/10
70%7/10
More goals in 2H
80%8/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
7.30N=10
Corners for
4.20N=10
3.00
Corners against
4.70
10.30
Match total
8.90
70%7/10
Over 8.5
60%6/10
60%6/10
Over 9.5
50%5/10
90%9/10
Team over 4.5
30%3/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

2.80N=10
For
2.80N=10
5.20
Match total
5.00
100%10/10
Over 3.5
80%8/10

Fouls

8.80N=10
Committed
13.30N=10
22.50
Match total
25.30

Shots

20.10N=10
Shots
11.50N=10
7.00
On target
4.30
6%
Conversion
14%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

high · Tier A
Comparable matches671
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home48.4%45.8%-2.7 pp
Draw26.4%28.2%+1.7 pp
Away25.1%26.1%+1.0 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.574.4%
Over 2.551.4%
Over 3.528.8%
BTTS54.5%

Historical average

1.591.11

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

1-113.7%
1-011.0%
2-18.2%
1-27.6%
0-07.3%

Comparable corner averages

5.694.39
Average total10.08

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=671.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.566.6%
Over 9.555.6%
Over 10.543.4%
Over 11.531.9%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches198
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitymoderate
Home FT35.4%29.0%–42.2% CI
Draw FT38.9%32.4%–45.8% CI
Away FT25.8%20.2%–32.3% CI

Remaining goals

1.37

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal75.3%
2+ goals37.9%
3+ goals16.7%

Who scores in 2H

Home55.1%
Away44.9%