Serie A · 2023/24
2024-04-28 · 17:00
11.9748.4%
X3.6126.4%
23.8025.1%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Napoli
LWDWWDWDLD
4W 4D 2L · 1.60 PPM
Roma
WLLLWWWDDW
5W 2D 3L · 1.70 PPM
Goals
1.20
Scored
1.60
1.40
Conceded
1.20
70%
Over 2.5
70%
70%
BTTS
60%
By half
0.70
1H goals
0.80
1.90
2H goals
2.00
90%
Goal in 2H
90%
Corners
7.30N=10
For
4.20N=10
3.00
Against
4.70
10.30
Total
8.90
Signals
Key historical patterns
strongOver 2.5 goals
7/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.
moderateBoth teams scored
7/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.
very strongAt least one second-half goal
9/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.
moderateOver 8.5 corners
7/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.20
Goals scored
1.60
1.40
Goals conceded
1.20
2.60
Total goals
2.80
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Napoli attack
1.20goals per matchRoma conceded1.20Matchup
Roma attack
1.60goals per matchNapoli conceded1.40Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.30
1H goals scored
0.30
0.40
1H goals conceded
0.50
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.90
2H goals scored
1.30
1.00
2H goals conceded
0.70
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
7.30N=10
Corners for
4.20N=10
3.00
Corners against
4.70
10.30
Match total
8.90
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.80N=10
For
2.80N=10
5.20
Match total
5.00
Over 3.5
Fouls
8.80N=10
Committed
13.30N=10
22.50
Match total
25.30
Shots
20.10N=10
Shots
11.50N=10
7.00
On target
4.30
6%
Conversion
14%
Market history
Similar historical matches
high · Tier A
Comparable matches671
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home48.4%45.8%-2.7 pp
Draw26.4%28.2%+1.7 pp
Away25.1%26.1%+1.0 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.574.4%
Over 2.551.4%
Over 3.528.8%
BTTS54.5%
Historical average
1.59–1.11
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-113.7%
1-011.0%
2-18.2%
1-27.6%
0-07.3%
Comparable corner averages
5.69–4.39
Average total10.08
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=671.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.566.6%
Over 9.555.6%
Over 10.543.4%
Over 11.531.9%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches198
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitymoderate
Home FT35.4%29.0%–42.2% CI
Draw FT38.9%32.4%–45.8% CI
Away FT25.8%20.2%–32.3% CI
Remaining goals
1.37
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal75.3%
2+ goals37.9%
3+ goals16.7%
Who scores in 2H
Home55.1%
Away44.9%