Serie A · 2023/24
2024-04-14 · 14:00
14.4421.5%
X3.9224.3%
21.7654.2%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Sassuolo
DDLLWDLLWD
2W 4D 4L · 1.00 PPM
Milan
DLDWWWLWWW
6W 2D 2L · 2.00 PPM
Goals
1.20
Scored
2.30
1.80
Conceded
1.70
50%
Over 2.5
90%
80%
BTTS
80%
By half
1.70
1H goals
1.50
1.30
2H goals
2.50
60%
Goal in 2H
100%
Corners
4.70N=10
For
4.60N=10
4.50
Against
4.70
9.20
Total
9.30
Signals
Key historical patterns
very strongBoth teams scored
8/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
moderateAt least one second-half goal
6/10 home-side sample · 10/10 away-side sample.
moderateOver 8.5 corners
7/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.20
Goals scored
2.30
1.80
Goals conceded
1.70
3.00
Total goals
4.00
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Sassuolo attack
1.20goals per matchMilan conceded1.70Matchup
Milan attack
2.30goals per matchSassuolo conceded1.80Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.80
1H goals scored
0.90
0.90
1H goals conceded
0.60
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.40
2H goals scored
1.40
0.90
2H goals conceded
1.10
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
4.70N=10
Corners for
4.60N=10
4.50
Corners against
4.70
9.20
Match total
9.30
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
1.80N=10
For
3.10N=10
3.60
Match total
5.90
Over 3.5
Fouls
10.20N=10
Committed
12.20N=10
20.90
Match total
23.70
Shots
13.20N=10
Shots
14.80N=10
4.10
On target
6.40
9%
Conversion
16%
Market history
Similar historical matches
low · Tier A
Comparable matches200
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home21.5%18.5%-3.0 pp
Draw24.3%23.0%-1.3 pp
Away54.2%58.5%+4.3 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.580.0%
Over 2.558.5%
Over 3.536.5%
BTTS55.5%
Historical average
1.02–1.95
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-212.0%
0-210.0%
1-19.5%
0-19.0%
2-26.5%
Comparable corner averages
4.11–5.87
Average total9.97
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=200.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.566.5%
Over 9.555.0%
Over 10.541.5%
Over 11.529.5%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches54
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT25.9%16.1%–38.9% CI
Draw FT25.9%16.1%–38.9% CI
Away FT48.1%35.4%–61.1% CI
Remaining goals
1.56
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal81.5%
2+ goals44.4%
3+ goals18.5%
Who scores in 2H
Home40.7%
Away61.1%