Serie A · 2023/24
2024-03-30 · 11:30
12.1145.4%
X3.5926.7%
23.4327.9%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Napoli
DLLWDWWDWD
4W 4D 2L · 1.60 PPM
Atalanta
LWDLLDWDLD
2W 4D 4L · 1.00 PPM
Goals
1.20
Scored
1.40
1.20
Conceded
1.70
60%
Over 2.5
60%
70%
BTTS
60%
By half
0.60
1H goals
1.50
1.80
2H goals
1.60
90%
Goal in 2H
80%
Corners
7.40N=10
For
4.10N=10
3.00
Against
4.60
10.40
Total
8.70
Signals
Key historical patterns
moderateOver 2.5 goals
6/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.
moderateBoth teams scored
7/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.
very strongAt least one second-half goal
9/10 home-side sample · 8/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.20
Goals scored
1.40
1.20
Goals conceded
1.70
2.40
Total goals
3.10
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Napoli attack
1.20goals per matchAtalanta conceded1.70Matchup
Atalanta attack
1.40goals per matchNapoli conceded1.20Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.20
1H goals scored
0.70
0.40
1H goals conceded
0.80
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
1.00
2H goals scored
0.70
0.80
2H goals conceded
0.90
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
7.40N=10
Corners for
4.10N=10
3.00
Corners against
4.60
10.40
Match total
8.70
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.80N=10
For
3.10N=10
5.30
Match total
4.90
Over 3.5
Fouls
9.60N=10
Committed
13.20N=10
22.90
Match total
24.00
Shots
19.60N=10
Shots
10.30N=10
6.60
On target
3.60
6%
Conversion
14%
Market history
Similar historical matches
medium · Tier A
Comparable matches375
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home45.4%47.2%+1.8 pp
Draw26.7%29.1%+2.4 pp
Away27.9%23.7%-4.2 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.577.1%
Over 2.550.4%
Over 3.529.3%
BTTS57.9%
Historical average
1.58–1.13
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-115.2%
2-110.9%
1-010.7%
2-07.7%
0-07.2%
Comparable corner averages
5.46–4.34
Average total9.79
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=375.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.563.7%
Over 9.551.2%
Over 10.538.7%
Over 11.529.3%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches119
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT39.5%31.2%–48.5% CI
Draw FT39.5%31.2%–48.5% CI
Away FT21.0%14.7%–29.2% CI
Remaining goals
1.51
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal77.3%
2+ goals46.2%
3+ goals21.0%
Who scores in 2H
Home61.3%
Away48.7%