Serie A · 2022/23
2023-05-13 · 17:00
14.1723.0%
X3.5027.4%
21.9349.6%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Spezia
DDLLLDWDLL
1W 4D 5L · 0.70 PPM
Milan
WDLLWLLWDD
3W 3D 4L · 1.20 PPM

Goals

0.50
Scored
1.30
1.60
Conceded
1.50
40%
Over 2.5
60%
30%
BTTS
60%

By half

0.70
1H goals
1.50
1.40
2H goals
1.30
80%
Goal in 2H
70%

Corners

4.60N=10
For
3.90N=10
5.40
Against
6.40
10.00
Total
10.30
Signals

Key historical patterns

strongAt least one second-half goal

8/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
0.50
Goals scored
1.30
1.60
Goals conceded
1.50
2.10
Total goals
2.80
80%8/10
Over 1.5
80%8/10
40%4/10
Over 2.5
60%6/10
10%1/10
Over 3.5
40%4/10
30%3/10
BTTS
60%6/10
Matchup

Spezia attack

0.50goals per match
Milan conceded1.50
Matchup

Milan attack

1.30goals per match
Spezia conceded1.60
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.20
1H goals scored
0.70
0.50
1H goals conceded
0.80
60%6/10
Over 0.5 1H
80%8/10
10%1/10
Leading at HT
30%3/10
0.30
2H goals scored
0.60
1.10
2H goals conceded
0.70
80%8/10
Over 0.5 2H
70%7/10
30%3/10
More goals in 2H
20%2/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
4.60N=10
Corners for
3.90N=10
5.40
Corners against
6.40
10.00
Match total
10.30
70%7/10
Over 8.5
50%5/10
60%6/10
Over 9.5
50%5/10
40%4/10
Team over 4.5
40%4/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

2.00N=10
For
2.50N=10
3.70
Match total
5.10
50%5/10
Over 3.5
70%7/10

Fouls

12.00N=10
Committed
12.60N=10
23.50
Match total
25.50

Shots

10.80N=10
Shots
11.80N=10
3.00
On target
5.20
5%
Conversion
11%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

low · Tier A
Comparable matches241
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home23.0%20.7%-2.2 pp
Draw27.4%24.1%-3.3 pp
Away49.6%55.2%+5.5 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.574.3%
Over 2.546.5%
Over 3.525.7%
BTTS47.7%

Historical average

0.911.70

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

0-214.1%
1-111.2%
0-110.8%
1-210.4%
1-09.1%

Comparable corner averages

4.325.29
Average total9.61

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=241.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.565.6%
Over 9.546.5%
Over 10.532.8%
Over 11.522.8%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches70
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT22.9%14.6%–34.0% CI
Draw FT30.0%20.5%–41.5% CI
Away FT47.1%35.9%–58.7% CI

Remaining goals

1.37

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal80.0%
2+ goals40.0%
3+ goals15.7%

Who scores in 2H

Home40.0%
Away60.0%