Serie A · 2022/23
2023-05-06 · 14:00
11.9748.7%
X3.4028.2%
24.1723.0%
Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.
Quick read
Match snapshot
Home vs Away · Last 10
Form
Milan
WWDLWWDDWD
5W 4D 1L · 1.90 PPM
Lazio
LLWDWWDWWL
5W 2D 3L · 1.70 PPM
Goals
1.50
Scored
1.30
1.10
Conceded
0.90
40%
Over 2.5
40%
60%
BTTS
30%
By half
1.10
1H goals
0.70
1.50
2H goals
1.50
90%
Goal in 2H
90%
Corners
4.90N=10
For
4.00N=10
3.70
Against
4.60
8.60
Total
8.60
Signals
Key historical patterns
very strongAt least one second-half goal
9/10 home-side sample · 9/10 away-side sample.
Team history
Goals
N=10 N=10
1.50
Goals scored
1.30
1.10
Goals conceded
0.90
2.60
Total goals
2.20
Over 1.5
Over 2.5
Over 3.5
BTTS
Matchup
Milan attack
1.50goals per matchLazio conceded0.90Matchup
Lazio attack
1.30goals per matchMilan conceded1.10Timing
First & second half
N=10 N=10
0.70
1H goals scored
0.60
0.40
1H goals conceded
0.10
Over 0.5 1H
Leading at HT
0.80
2H goals scored
0.70
0.70
2H goals conceded
0.80
Over 0.5 2H
More goals in 2H
Set pieces
Corners
N=10 N=10
4.90N=10
Corners for
4.00N=10
3.70
Corners against
4.60
8.60
Match total
8.60
Over 8.5
Over 9.5
Team over 4.5
Advanced
Cards, fouls & shots
Yellow cards
2.70N=10
For
2.20N=10
6.00
Match total
5.50
Over 3.5
Fouls
12.20N=10
Committed
9.50N=10
24.10
Match total
22.60
Shots
15.20N=10
Shots
10.00N=10
4.90
On target
3.70
10%
Conversion
13%
Market history
Similar historical matches
high · Tier A
Comparable matches556
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home48.7%50.5%+1.8 pp
Draw28.2%30.6%+2.3 pp
Away23.0%18.9%-4.1 pp
Comparable goal profile
Over 1.568.3%
Over 2.540.5%
Over 3.521.6%
BTTS47.3%
Historical average
1.45–0.88
Historical average score, not a predicted score.
Most common scores
1-113.8%
1-013.7%
2-010.8%
0-010.8%
2-110.6%
Comparable corner averages
5.65–3.95
Average total9.60
Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=556.
Comparable corner totals
Over 8.559.5%
Over 9.546.2%
Over 10.537.1%
Over 11.527.3%
What if?
If half-time is 0-0
Comparable matches187
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitymoderate
Home FT40.6%33.9%–47.8% CI
Draw FT42.2%35.4%–49.4% CI
Away FT17.1%12.4%–23.2% CI
Remaining goals
1.19
Historical average second-half goals.
Second half
1+ goal67.9%
2+ goals34.8%
3+ goals12.3%
Who scores in 2H
Home52.9%
Away34.8%