Serie A · 2022/23
2023-04-23 · 17:00
11.5063.7%
X4.1423.1%
27.2613.2%

Average market odds. Implied probabilities are normalized to remove the market margin.

Sample
Context
Past seasons
Quick read

Match snapshot

Home vs Away · Last 10

Form

Milan
WWWWDLWWDD
6W 3D 1L · 2.10 PPM
Lecce
LDWDLWWLLL
3W 2D 5L · 1.10 PPM

Goals

1.80
Scored
0.70
1.10
Conceded
1.00
50%
Over 2.5
10%
60%
BTTS
20%

By half

1.30
1H goals
0.80
1.60
2H goals
0.90
90%
Goal in 2H
70%

Corners

4.60N=10
For
3.70N=10
4.00
Against
5.10
8.60
Total
8.80
Signals

Key historical patterns

strongAt least one second-half goal

9/10 home-side sample · 7/10 away-side sample.

moderateOver 8.5 corners

6/10 home-side sample · 6/10 away-side sample.

Team history

Goals

N=10 N=10
1.80
Goals scored
0.70
1.10
Goals conceded
1.00
2.90
Total goals
1.70
80%8/10
Over 1.5
70%7/10
50%5/10
Over 2.5
10%1/10
30%3/10
Over 3.5
0%0/10
60%6/10
BTTS
20%2/10
Matchup

Milan attack

1.80goals per match
Lecce conceded1.00
Matchup

Lecce attack

0.70goals per match
Milan conceded1.10
Timing

First & second half

N=10 N=10
0.90
1H goals scored
0.30
0.40
1H goals conceded
0.50
80%8/10
Over 0.5 1H
70%7/10
60%6/10
Leading at HT
30%3/10
0.90
2H goals scored
0.40
0.70
2H goals conceded
0.50
90%9/10
Over 0.5 2H
70%7/10
40%4/10
More goals in 2H
30%3/10
Set pieces

Corners

N=10 N=10
4.60N=10
Corners for
3.70N=10
4.00
Corners against
5.10
8.60
Match total
8.80
60%6/10
Over 8.5
60%6/10
40%4/10
Over 9.5
40%4/10
40%4/10
Team over 4.5
20%2/10
Advanced

Cards, fouls & shots

Yellow cards

2.90N=10
For
1.90N=10
6.30
Match total
3.90
90%9/10
Over 3.5
60%6/10

Fouls

12.90N=10
Committed
15.20N=10
24.20
Match total
27.40

Shots

15.90N=10
Shots
9.00N=10
4.90
On target
2.30
11%
Conversion
8%
Historical scope
History
Market history

Similar historical matches

low · Tier A
Comparable matches92
Method1X2 + O/U + AH
WeightingNone
MarketHistoryΔ
Home63.7%75.0%+11.3 pp
Draw23.1%19.6%-3.5 pp
Away13.2%5.4%-7.7 pp

Comparable goal profile

Over 1.571.7%
Over 2.550.0%
Over 3.529.3%
BTTS50.0%

Historical average

1.950.70

Historical average score, not a predicted score.

Most common scores

1-022.8%
2-113.0%
2-010.9%
1-19.8%
3-18.7%

Comparable corner averages

5.793.51
Average total9.30

Home – away corner average · Corner sample N=92.

Comparable corner totals

Over 8.563.0%
Over 9.546.7%
Over 10.532.6%
Over 11.518.5%
Half-time score
What if?

If half-time is 0-0

Comparable matches26
Exact HT state0-0
Sample qualitylimited
Home FT65.4%46.2%–80.6% CI
Draw FT30.8%16.5%–50.0% CI
Away FT3.8%0.7%–18.9% CI

Remaining goals

1.50

Historical average second-half goals.

Second half

1+ goal84.6%
2+ goals38.5%
3+ goals15.4%

Who scores in 2H

Home80.8%
Away23.1%